Application of Statistical Methods to Analyze a Simulated Breath Sample Dataset to Determine Disease Status

Picomole, based in Moncton NB, has developed an apparatus that proposes to offer non-invasive, low cost andearly detection of lung cancer. Picomole has shown that patients with lung cancer exhale specific compoundswith a signature in the mid-infrared (mid-IR). Their diagnostic device is based on absorption measurements ofthese compounds using Continuous Wave Cavity Ring-Down Spectroscopy (CRDS).Picomole has developed preliminary Bayesian fitting algorithms for determining the composition of breathsamples using publicly available data. The supporting theory is based on well-known inverse methods but hasnot yet been rigorously evaluated. It has shown promise in a limited number of breath samples but largersample sizes and significant algorithmic innovations will be essential. Dr. Mills Flemming's expertise inworking with measurement error will be extremely useful here as will her interest in examining the influence ofprior specifications in Bayesian frameworks. Once the fitting algorithms have been refined and tested, astatistical model will be built that can be applied to real human breath sample data for the purpose ofestimating disease state. That is, the model will infer the presence or absence of disease based onconcentrations of breath metabolites associated with lung cancer. One of the challenges here will be to allowfor more compounds in the model that there are spectral lines. It is believed that a stepwise fitting algorithmusing the Akaike Information Criterion may be useful.Over the past number of years, Picomole has successfully developed technologies to collect data on humanbreath but has not been able to validate their models for these data or propose new more effective ones.Picomole physicists, together with Dr. Mills Flemming will take these next steps forward toward developing acommercially viable product for the Company. Early detection of pulmonary diseases will be a game changerin cancer therapy by eliminating time-consuming invasive surgery and producing a substantial increase in thesurvival rate of lung cancer patients. The success of this project will further strengthen the position of Canada