Contemporary changes in marine ecosystems: from patterns to process

My research program focuses on contemporary changes in marine ecosystems, and their drivers. I am particularly interested in explaining observed patterns and changes in marine biodiversity, which includes the richness, composition, and distribution of species, from plankton to whales. My research program entails the use of ecological theory, statistical modeling of large data sets, and field studies to answer the following research questions: (1) How is marine biodiversity distributed from local to global scales?, (2) how is this distribution changing under current environmental change, and (3) what are the mechanisms and drivers that explain observed changes? The answers to these questions help to inform management solutions, such as safely adjusted harvest levels under climate change, and future-proof' protected areas that take changes in environmental conditions and species distributions into account. A key area of current inquiry is the application of time-varying ecological models, whereas key parameters are allowed to vary from year to year, allowing better real-time forecasts of fish stocks, for example. I am particularly interested in better understanding the oceanographic and ecological mechanisms behind observed changes in fish stock recruitment and productivity, which appear to be linked to on-going climate-driven changes in plankton ecosystems. Another important area is the development of spatial models that allow us to track the distribution and abundance of threatened species such as sharks and sea turtles, informed both by field tagging of animals, as well as the analysis of fisheries bycatch data. Here, we aim to develop tools for better protecting these species given their large seasonal and inter-annual movements. To do this effectively, we must also understand how fishermen are dynamically adjusting their foraging tactics'. To this end, we are developing smart algorithms that can detect fishing patterns, and changes in behavior from satellite-derived Automatic Identification System (s-AIS) data, providing an unprecedented picture of human use patterns at a global scale. These patterns will also be analysed in conjunction with a large data set my research group has compiled on the diversity of many major taxa in the oceans, as well as existing protected areas that aim to conserve biodiversity. Finally, we have recently developed a novel ecological theory that can explain said patterns of biodiversity from first principles, namely temperature-driven metabolic rates and factors that affect the abundance of individuals. Building on this new basic understanding I would like to explore the long-term consequences of changes in ocean temperature on large-scale biodiversity patterns. While much of my laboratory works on global-scale processes, we maintain a regional focus on the Northwest Atlantic, making use of the richness of field data available here.