Database of Past and Future Storm Surges and their Return Period Analyses

Description

Storm surges are a severe coastal hazard that can affect coastal erosion, flooding and navigation safety, and can also damage marine infrastructure. Climate change has the potential to cause more storm surges. This project aims to establish a database of past and future storm surges (1950–2100), which can be used to assess the possibility of changes in surge return periods due to climate change. A “return period” is the average length of time in years for an event (e.g. storm surge or flood) of a given magnitude to be equalled or exceeded.

The database will consist of time series of water levels for the permanent tide gauges in the Atlantic and Quebec regions operated by the Canadian Hydrographic Service (CHS). The database and return period analyses will provide useful information to the CHS, the Small Craft Harbours Program and a variety of other decision-making areas affected by water-level related risks. The Atlantic Storm Prediction Centre of Environment Canada is also interested in having such a database. This project is an extension of an on-going similar project funded by the Ministère des Transports du Québec (Québec Ministry of Transport), which aims to provide storm-surge modelling results for assessing climate-change related risks to transportation infrastructure.