Maritime traffic pattern analysis for coastal protection

Maritime traffic analysis is a valuable tool for helping protect the coasts. In this research, two types of hazards will be considered: hazardous spills from ships, and identification of boats that are displaying unusual behaviour, perhaps indicating some bad intent. Using computer models, we will gauge how many ships pass though a given area over a specified time frame, and what type of noxious substance they are carrying in large quantities. This could be oil, or other Hazardous and Noxious Substances (HNS), such as chemicals. We will then evaluate what the causes of spills could be, from deliberate dumping to vessel accidents. In the latter case, shallow waters, congested areas, and storms are some factors that could lead to accidental spills. Also, some areas are riskier than others if a spill occurs, due to the sensitivity of the shore, protected areas, higher density population, and other such factors. Once we can forecast spills based on traffic, by type of substance, by frequency, and by size, then we will use the information to assess the amount of response capability that is needed in every area of the country, and compare that with the current capacity so that improvements can be made if necessary. The other thrust of this research is to use coastal waters monitoring information to detect if a boat is acting in an unusual way that may indicate a threat. If a boat is entering restricted areas, shadowing a ship, moving erratically, or displaying other unexpected behaviours, then that could raise concerns so that the situation can be investigated. Although some coastal waters are monitored with various types of sensors, it is necessary to develop computer programs that can filter all of the information and determine when something unusual is happening so that an alarm can be raised. This is a challenging problem, which begins by mapping out vessel paths and behaviours which are typical for the area so that when a boat does something very different, it will stand out against the normal traffic picture.