Modeling the effects of environmental variability on marine zooplankton dynamics and production

Climate change is profoundly affecting marine ecosystems, from the primary producers at the bottom of the food chain to large predators like fish and whales. We need to be able to anticipate future changes in order to sustainably manage our ecologically and economically important marine resources, including multi-billion dollar fisheries. In this regard, it is critical to understand how climate influences the dynamics and production of marine zooplankton, as they are key links in marine food chains, and their roles as both predator and prey regulate marine ecosystem structure and function. This work will develop and apply models to quantify how changes in the environment affect the population dynamics of marine zooplankton, with the goals of advancing zooplankton ecology, improving predictive capabilities and providing crucial information to policy makers and environmental managers.Short-term projects will target two species that are dominant zooplankton in various regions throughout the world, and are major prey items for economically important fish. Simulations will determination of the relative importance of upstream vs. local processes, advection vs. mortality and reproduction vs. predation, as well as identification of the key environmental variables most influencing interannual variability. Such insights can be incorporated into ecosystem-based fisheries models to enhance management capabilities. The model code will be made available to the scientific community, so that it can be used in ongoing and future modeling efforts, as well as used for academic purposes. The work will also involve collaboration with national and international scientists, and support the training of graduate and undergraduate students in applied mathematical methods, strategic simulation, and data analyses.