Predicting the effects of climate change on the microbial and chemical control of agricultural pests such as obliquebanded leafroller in apple

Controlling agricultural pests is critical for the success and sustainability of Canada's agricultural sector. However, climate change threatens this goal. Climate change is predicted to alter the ability of pesticides to kill agricultural pests. For example, heat waves, whose frequency in Canada is increasing (Climate Atlas of Canada, https://climateatlas.ca), can affect the sensitivity of insect pests to chemical (e.g. Janssens et al., 2017) and microbial (e.g. Seehausen et al., 2017) control agents. We propose to demonstrate how heat waves will impact the effectiveness of chemical and microbial control agents of the Obliqebanded Leafroller (OBLR) (Choristoneura rosaceana), a pest of apple trees. To be able to predict the effect of heat waves on OBLR, and other pests, we need to understand how heat waves alter insect physiology. We will use molecular, biochemical, and physiological methods to quantify this effect. We will also test the effect of pesticides on OBLR directly and correlate these data with the physiological data. We will use this information to develop a predictive model for apple growers. It will allow farmers to adjust their pesticide use during and after a heat wave to provide maximum control with the minimum required pesticide. We will provide this information in an easy-to-use format for apple growers (e.g. iPhone app). Although the focus of this proposal will be on OBLR, this study will provide a framework for the development of similar models for other agricultural pests during extreme weather events (i.e. heat waves). We have assembled a team that has the necessary scientific and mathematical expertise. We have partnered with scientists from AAFC who will rigorously field test solutions that are developed in the lab to determine their applicability to real world situations. The AAFC members of the team also have connections to food producers and can translate lab and field research into useful solutions (i.e. changes in pest management practice).