Robust design and operation of stand-alone hybrid renewable energy systems

Hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES), which combine conventional and renewable energy generators and energy storage, are becoming a viable and attractive alternative to grid connection for serving not only remote and isolated communities, but also independent buildings and urban communities. However, given the intermittent and unpredictable nature of renewable energy sources, the variability of demand and the high cost of energy storage, they need to be carefully designed and operated so they can serve demand reliably, economically and eco-friendly. Current HRES planning approaches are either too optimistic, naively assuming that the supply and demand are deterministic or have known probability distributions, or too pessimistic, planning them based on the worst-case scenario which leads to oversized and technically/economically infeasible systems. In this research program, we investigate new practical and balanced, i.e., neither optimistic nor pessimistic, approaches for planning HRES that effectively utilize the information contained in the historical supply and demand data to capture and deal with the uncertainty issue. We will implement and extend modern mathematical and statistical techniques in decision-making under uncertainty to tackle the HRES planning problem, which include time-series analysis, robust simulation-optimization, data clustering and distributionally-robust optimization. The research will also explore new efficient solution methods for these large-scale and computationally-challenging problems that can be applied also to handle other decision-making problems. Furthermore, we will study the co-optimization of electrical and thermal energy supply in buildings and communities that use combined-heat-and-power (CHP) units while considering the effect of new technologies such as electric vehicles and solar roofs. This research is expected to significantly improve the technical and economical feasibility of stand-alone HRES through better design and operation, putting them on par with (or even better than) our current fossil-based centralized energy supply systems. On one hand, this will enable rural Northern communities in Canada, including aboriginal communities, to have reliable and economical energy supply that uses locally-abundant renewable energy resources such as wind, hydro, tidal and solar energies. On the other hand, implementing the proposed robust HRES planning framework in energy management systems for grid-connected urban and suburban communities will increase the penetration of renewable energy sources and foster the transition towards a more sustainable and secure energy system.