Assessing the impacts of 1.5ĝ€°C global warming - Simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

Katja Frieler; Stefan Lange; Franziska Piontek; Christopher P.O. Reyer; Jacob Schewe; Lila Warszawski; Fang Zhao; Louise Chini; Sebastien Denvil; Kerry Emanuel; Tobias Geiger; Kate Halladay; George Hurtt; Matthias Mengel; Daisgbre Murakami; Sebastian Ostberg; Alexander Popp; Riccardo Riva; Miodrag Stevanovic; Tatsuo SuzGBRi; Jan Volkholz; Eleanor Burke; Philippe Ciais; Kristie Ebi; Tyler D. Eddy; Joshua Elliott; Eric Galbraith; Simon N. Gosling; Fred Hattermann; Thomas Hickler; Jochen Hinkel; Christian Hof; Veronika Huber; Jonas Jägermeyr; Valentina Krysanova; Rafael Marcé; Hannes Müller Schmied; Ioanna Mouratiadou; Don Pierson; Derek P. Tittensor; Robert Vautard; Michelle Van Vliet; Matthias F. Biber; Richard A. Betts; Benjamin Leon Bodirsky; Delphine Deryng; Steve Frolking; Chris D. Jones; Heike K. Lotze; Hermann Lotze-Campen; Ritvik Sahajpal; Kirsten Thonicke; Hanqin Tian; Yoshiki Yamagata

doi:10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017

Assessing the impacts of 1.5ĝ€°C global warming - Simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Franziska Piontek, Christopher P.O. Reyer, Jacob Schewe, Lila Warszawski, Fang Zhao, Louise Chini, Sebastien Denvil, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, Kate Halladay, George Hurtt, Matthias Mengel, Daisgbre Murakami, Sebastian Ostberg, Alexander Popp, Riccardo Riva, Miodrag Stevanovic, Tatsuo SuzGBRiJan Volkholz, Eleanor Burke, Philippe Ciais, Kristie Ebi, Tyler D. Eddy, Joshua Elliott, Eric Galbraith, Simon N. Gosling, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Jochen Hinkel, Christian Hof, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Valentina Krysanova, Rafael Marcé, Hannes Müller Schmied, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Don Pierson, Derek P. Tittensor, Robert Vautard, Michelle Van Vliet, Matthias F. Biber, Richard A. Betts, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Delphine Deryng, Steve Frolking, Chris D. Jones, Heike K. Lotze, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Ritvik Sahajpal, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, Yoshiki Yamagata

Medicine

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

461 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a <q>special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5ĝ€°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways</q>. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5ĝ€°C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	4321-4345
Number of pages	25
Journal	Geoscientific Model Development
Volume	10
Issue number	12
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017
Publication status	Published - Nov 30 2017

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Tatsuo Suzuki acknowledges funding from the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Sports, Science and Technology. The project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements no. 689150 (SIM4NEXUS) and no. 642147 (CD-LINKS).

Funding Information:
Acknowledgements. We thank Graham Weedon (Met Office) and Emanuel Dutra (ECMWF), who helped a lot to put together the EWEMBI dataset. COST Action FP1304 for supporting biomes meeting. This research was supported by German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, grant no. 01LS1201A2) and in part by the EU FP7 HELIX project (grant no. 603864). Some authors acknowledge funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 641816 (CRESCENDO). Some authors acknowledge support from the Leibniz Competition project SAW-2013-PIK-5 (EX-PACT). Some authors acknowledge and appreciate funding by the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety 11_II_093_Global_A_SIDS_and_LDCs (SURVIVE). Authors acknowledge funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 641816 (CRESCENDO). Met Office authors were supported by the joint UK BEIS–Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). Jochen Hinkel has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for Research, Technological Development and Demonstration under grant agreement no. 603396 (RISES-AM project) and from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 642018 (GREEN-WIN project). Derek Tittensor acknowledges funding from the Kanne Rassmussen Foundation, Denmark. The work of Kate Halladay, Eleanor Burke, Richard A. Betts and Chris D. Jones forms part of the BEIS– Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme GA01101. Philippe Ciais acknowledges support from the European Research Council Synergy grant ERC-2013-SyG-610028 IMBALANCE-P and the ANR Convergence Lab project CLAND. Tyler Eddy acknowledges funding from the Nippon Foundation to the Nereus Program. Hanqin Tian acknowledges funding from US National Science Foundation (1243232), National Key Research and Development Program of China (no. 2017YFA0604700), SKLURE Grant (SKLURE2017-1-6).

Funding Information:
Riccardo E. M. Riva acknowledges funding from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research VIDI grant 864.12.012.

Publisher Copyright:
© Author(s) 2017.

ASJC Scopus Subject Areas

Modelling and Simulation
General Earth and Planetary Sciences

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017

Cite this

Frieler, K., Lange, S., Piontek, F., Reyer, C. P. O., Schewe, J., Warszawski, L., Zhao, F., Chini, L., Denvil, S., Emanuel, K., Geiger, T., Halladay, K., Hurtt, G., Mengel, M., Murakami, D., Ostberg, S., Popp, A., Riva, R., Stevanovic, M., ... Yamagata, Y. (2017). Assessing the impacts of 1.5ĝ€°C global warming - Simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b). Geoscientific Model Development, 10(12), 4321-4345. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017

Frieler, K, Lange, S, Piontek, F, Reyer, CPO, Schewe, J, Warszawski, L, Zhao, F, Chini, L, Denvil, S, Emanuel, K, Geiger, T, Halladay, K, Hurtt, G, Mengel, M, Murakami, D, Ostberg, S, Popp, A, Riva, R, Stevanovic, M, SuzGBRi, T, Volkholz, J, Burke, E, Ciais, P, Ebi, K, Eddy, TD, Elliott, J, Galbraith, E, Gosling, SN, Hattermann, F, Hickler, T, Hinkel, J, Hof, C, Huber, V, Jägermeyr, J, Krysanova, V, Marcé, R, Müller Schmied, H, Mouratiadou, I, Pierson, D, Tittensor, DP, Vautard, R, Van Vliet, M, Biber, MF, Betts, RA, Leon Bodirsky, B, Deryng, D, Frolking, S, Jones, CD, Lotze, HK, Lotze-Campen, H, Sahajpal, R, Thonicke, K, Tian, H & Yamagata, Y 2017, 'Assessing the impacts of 1.5ĝ€°C global warming - Simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)', Geoscientific Model Development, vol. 10, no. 12, pp. 4321-4345. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017

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title = "Assessing the impacts of 1.5ĝ€°C global warming - Simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)",

abstract = "In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5ĝ€°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5ĝ€°C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).",

author = "Katja Frieler and Stefan Lange and Franziska Piontek and Reyer, {Christopher P.O.} and Jacob Schewe and Lila Warszawski and Fang Zhao and Louise Chini and Sebastien Denvil and Kerry Emanuel and Tobias Geiger and Kate Halladay and George Hurtt and Matthias Mengel and Daisgbre Murakami and Sebastian Ostberg and Alexander Popp and Riccardo Riva and Miodrag Stevanovic and Tatsuo SuzGBRi and Jan Volkholz and Eleanor Burke and Philippe Ciais and Kristie Ebi and Eddy, {Tyler D.} and Joshua Elliott and Eric Galbraith and Gosling, {Simon N.} and Fred Hattermann and Thomas Hickler and Jochen Hinkel and Christian Hof and Veronika Huber and Jonas J{\"a}germeyr and Valentina Krysanova and Rafael Marc{\'e} and {M{\"u}ller Schmied}, Hannes and Ioanna Mouratiadou and Don Pierson and Tittensor, {Derek P.} and Robert Vautard and {Van Vliet}, Michelle and Biber, {Matthias F.} and Betts, {Richard A.} and {Leon Bodirsky}, Benjamin and Delphine Deryng and Steve Frolking and Jones, {Chris D.} and Lotze, {Heike K.} and Hermann Lotze-Campen and Ritvik Sahajpal and Kirsten Thonicke and Hanqin Tian and Yoshiki Yamagata",

note = "Funding Information: Tatsuo Suzuki acknowledges funding from the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Sports, Science and Technology. The project has received funding from the European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements no. 689150 (SIM4NEXUS) and no. 642147 (CD-LINKS). Funding Information: Acknowledgements. We thank Graham Weedon (Met Office) and Emanuel Dutra (ECMWF), who helped a lot to put together the EWEMBI dataset. COST Action FP1304 for supporting biomes meeting. This research was supported by German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, grant no. 01LS1201A2) and in part by the EU FP7 HELIX project (grant no. 603864). Some authors acknowledge funding from the European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 641816 (CRESCENDO). Some authors acknowledge support from the Leibniz Competition project SAW-2013-PIK-5 (EX-PACT). Some authors acknowledge and appreciate funding by the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety 11_II_093_Global_A_SIDS_and_LDCs (SURVIVE). Authors acknowledge funding from the European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 641816 (CRESCENDO). Met Office authors were supported by the joint UK BEIS–Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). Jochen Hinkel has received funding from the European Union{\textquoteright}s Seventh Programme for Research, Technological Development and Demonstration under grant agreement no. 603396 (RISES-AM project) and from the European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 642018 (GREEN-WIN project). Derek Tittensor acknowledges funding from the Kanne Rassmussen Foundation, Denmark. The work of Kate Halladay, Eleanor Burke, Richard A. Betts and Chris D. Jones forms part of the BEIS– Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme GA01101. Philippe Ciais acknowledges support from the European Research Council Synergy grant ERC-2013-SyG-610028 IMBALANCE-P and the ANR Convergence Lab project CLAND. Tyler Eddy acknowledges funding from the Nippon Foundation to the Nereus Program. Hanqin Tian acknowledges funding from US National Science Foundation (1243232), National Key Research and Development Program of China (no. 2017YFA0604700), SKLURE Grant (SKLURE2017-1-6). Funding Information: Riccardo E. M. Riva acknowledges funding from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research VIDI grant 864.12.012. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} Author(s) 2017.",

year = "2017",

month = nov,

day = "30",

doi = "10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017",

language = "English",

volume = "10",

pages = "4321--4345",

journal = "Geoscientific Model Development",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Assessing the impacts of 1.5ĝ€°C global warming - Simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

AU - Frieler, Katja

AU - Lange, Stefan

AU - Piontek, Franziska

AU - Reyer, Christopher P.O.

AU - Schewe, Jacob

AU - Warszawski, Lila

AU - Zhao, Fang

AU - Chini, Louise

AU - Denvil, Sebastien

AU - Emanuel, Kerry

AU - Geiger, Tobias

AU - Halladay, Kate

AU - Hurtt, George

AU - Mengel, Matthias

AU - Murakami, Daisgbre

AU - Ostberg, Sebastian

AU - Popp, Alexander

AU - Riva, Riccardo

AU - Stevanovic, Miodrag

AU - SuzGBRi, Tatsuo

AU - Volkholz, Jan

AU - Burke, Eleanor

AU - Ciais, Philippe

AU - Ebi, Kristie

AU - Eddy, Tyler D.

AU - Elliott, Joshua

AU - Galbraith, Eric

AU - Gosling, Simon N.

AU - Hattermann, Fred

AU - Hickler, Thomas

AU - Hinkel, Jochen

AU - Hof, Christian

AU - Huber, Veronika

AU - Jägermeyr, Jonas

AU - Krysanova, Valentina

AU - Marcé, Rafael

AU - Müller Schmied, Hannes

AU - Mouratiadou, Ioanna

AU - Pierson, Don

AU - Tittensor, Derek P.

AU - Vautard, Robert

AU - Van Vliet, Michelle

AU - Biber, Matthias F.

AU - Betts, Richard A.

AU - Leon Bodirsky, Benjamin

AU - Deryng, Delphine

AU - Frolking, Steve

AU - Jones, Chris D.

AU - Lotze, Heike K.

AU - Lotze-Campen, Hermann

AU - Sahajpal, Ritvik

AU - Thonicke, Kirsten

AU - Tian, Hanqin

AU - Yamagata, Yoshiki

N1 - Funding Information: Tatsuo Suzuki acknowledges funding from the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Sports, Science and Technology. The project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements no. 689150 (SIM4NEXUS) and no. 642147 (CD-LINKS). Funding Information: Acknowledgements. We thank Graham Weedon (Met Office) and Emanuel Dutra (ECMWF), who helped a lot to put together the EWEMBI dataset. COST Action FP1304 for supporting biomes meeting. This research was supported by German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, grant no. 01LS1201A2) and in part by the EU FP7 HELIX project (grant no. 603864). Some authors acknowledge funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 641816 (CRESCENDO). Some authors acknowledge support from the Leibniz Competition project SAW-2013-PIK-5 (EX-PACT). Some authors acknowledge and appreciate funding by the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety 11_II_093_Global_A_SIDS_and_LDCs (SURVIVE). Authors acknowledge funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 641816 (CRESCENDO). Met Office authors were supported by the joint UK BEIS–Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). Jochen Hinkel has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for Research, Technological Development and Demonstration under grant agreement no. 603396 (RISES-AM project) and from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 642018 (GREEN-WIN project). Derek Tittensor acknowledges funding from the Kanne Rassmussen Foundation, Denmark. The work of Kate Halladay, Eleanor Burke, Richard A. Betts and Chris D. Jones forms part of the BEIS– Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme GA01101. Philippe Ciais acknowledges support from the European Research Council Synergy grant ERC-2013-SyG-610028 IMBALANCE-P and the ANR Convergence Lab project CLAND. Tyler Eddy acknowledges funding from the Nippon Foundation to the Nereus Program. Hanqin Tian acknowledges funding from US National Science Foundation (1243232), National Key Research and Development Program of China (no. 2017YFA0604700), SKLURE Grant (SKLURE2017-1-6). Funding Information: Riccardo E. M. Riva acknowledges funding from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research VIDI grant 864.12.012. Publisher Copyright: © Author(s) 2017.

PY - 2017/11/30

Y1 - 2017/11/30

N2 - In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5ĝ€°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5ĝ€°C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).

AB - In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5ĝ€°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5ĝ€°C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).

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Assessing the impacts of 1.5ĝ€°C global warming - Simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

Abstract

Bibliographical note

ASJC Scopus Subject Areas

UN SDGs

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