Consequences of fisheries-induced evolution for population productivity and recovery potential

Fisheries-induced evolution has become a major branch of the research on anthropogenic and contemporary evolution. Within the conservation context, fisheries-induced evolution has been hypothesized to negatively affect the persistence and recovery potential of depleted populations, but this has not been explicitly investigated. Here, we investigate how fisheries-induced evolution of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) life histories affects per capita population growth rate, a parameter negatively correlated with extinction risk. We simulate the evolutionary and ecological dynamics of a cod population for a 100 year period of size-selective harvesting, followed thereafter by 300 years of recovery. To evaluate the relative importance of harvest-induced evolution, we either allowed life histories to evolve during and after the fishing period, or we assumed that fisheries-induced evolution was absent. Population growth rates did not differ appreciably between the evolutionary and non-evolutionary simulation scenarios, despite the emergence of rather pronounced differences in life histories. The underlying reason was that in the absence of fishing the cumulative lifetime reproductive outputs were very similar among differing life histories. The results suggest that fisheries-induced evolution might not always have as clear-cut an effect on population growth rate as previously anticipated.