Abstract
Firms’ financial risk forecasting is generally based on firms’ own financial or nonfinancial characteristics. In fact, macroeconomic fluctuation will also impact firm’s financial risk. We forecast the fluctuation of financial conditions of China’s manufacturing industry listed corporations based on firm’s own historical financial condition and macroeconomic conditions by combining the Markov regime-switching and Z-score models.We show that our method can predict well the trends and turning-points of financial condition such as debt-asset ratio, operating activities cash flow ration and return on equity, except those which experienced sudden change in financial condition because of capital or asset restructuring.
Original language | English |
---|---|
Title of host publication | Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Management Science and Engineering Management - Focused on Intelligent System and Management Science |
Editors | Jiuping Xu, Virgílio António Cruz-Machado, Stefan Nickel, Benjamin Lev |
Publisher | Springer Verlag |
Pages | 501-511 |
Number of pages | 11 |
ISBN (Electronic) | 9783642551819 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2014 |
Event | 8th International Conference on Management Science and Engineering Management, ICMSEM 2014 - Lisbon, Portugal Duration: Jul 25 2014 → Jul 27 2014 |
Publication series
Name | Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing |
---|---|
Volume | 280 |
ISSN (Print) | 2194-5357 |
Conference
Conference | 8th International Conference on Management Science and Engineering Management, ICMSEM 2014 |
---|---|
Country/Territory | Portugal |
City | Lisbon |
Period | 7/25/14 → 7/27/14 |
Bibliographical note
Publisher Copyright:© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014.
ASJC Scopus Subject Areas
- Control and Systems Engineering
- General Computer Science