Fishing, predation, and temperature drive herring decline in a large marine ecosystem

Daniel G. Boyce, Brian Petrie, Kenneth T. Frank

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Since 1960, landings of Atlantic herring have been the greatest of any marine species in Canada, surpassing Atlantic cod and accounting for 24% of the total seafood harvested in Atlantic Canada. The Scotian Shelf-Bay of Fundy herring fisheries (NAFO Division 4VWX) is among Canada's oldest and drives this productivity, accounting for up to 75% of the total herring catch in some years. The stocks’ productivity and overall health have declined since 1965. Despite management measures to promote recovery implemented since 2003, biomass remains low and is declining. The factors that drive the productivity of 4VWX herring are primarily unresolved, likely impeding the effectiveness of management actions on this stock. We evaluated potential drivers of herring variability by analyzing 52 time-series that describe the temporal and spatial evolution of the 4VWX herring population and the physical, ecological, and anthropogenic factors that could affect them using structural equation models. Variation in herring biomass was best accounted for by the exploitation rate's negative effect and the geographic distribution of fishing and recruitment. Thermal phenology and temperature adversely and egg predation positively impacted the early life stage mortality rate and, ultimately, adult biomass. These findings are broadly relevant to fisheries management, but particularly for 4VWX herring, where the current management approach does not consider their early life stage dynamics or assess them within the ecosystem or climate change contexts.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)18136-18150
Number of pages15
JournalEcology and Evolution
Volume11
Issue number24
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The authors are grateful to all data providers and Rabindra Singh and Derek Knox, for providing data and advice, and J. Munden, K. Schleit, and W.C. Leggett for reviewing the manuscript. Funding was provided by the Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans Strategic Program for Ecosystem‐Based Research and Advice, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Team Discovery Grant to K.T.F. and W.C. Leggett, and by the Ocean Frontier Institute (Module G).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

ASJC Scopus Subject Areas

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
  • Ecology
  • Nature and Landscape Conservation

PubMed: MeSH publication types

  • Journal Article

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