Influence of climate and abundance on migration timing of adult Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) among rivers in Newfoundland and Labrador

Evidence mounts for the influence of climate variability on temporal trends in the phenology of many organisms including various species of fish. Accordingly, we examined variation in adult Atlantic salmon Salmo salar run timing in thirteen Newfoundland and Labrador rivers where returns were monitored at fishways or fish-counting fences. Run timing varied significantly among rivers with the median date of return differing by up to 5 weeks. Duration of runs was generally short with most adults returning over a period of three to 5 weeks. A mixed model analysis incorporating a first-order autoregressive error structure was used to generalise changes in run timing among all monitored rivers. Results indicated that the median date of return has advanced by almost 12 days over a 35-year interval from 1978 to 2012, while several individual rivers have advanced by almost 21 days. The influence of climate on median timing was evident when the simultaneous effects of both climate and salmon abundance were controlled. We found earlier runs associated with overall warmer climate conditions on the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelf. Results contrast with those from the north-east Atlantic where Atlantic salmon are returning later in some rivers coincident with warming climate conditions.