Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Joshua E. Cinner; Iain R. Caldwell; Lauric Thiault; John Ben; Julia L. Blanchard; Marta Coll; Amy Diedrich; Tyler D. Eddy; Jason D. Everett; Christian Folberth; Didier Gascuel; Jerome Guiet; Georgina G. Gurney; Ryan F. Heneghan; Jonas Jägermeyr; Narriman Jiddawi; Rachael Lahari; John Kuange; Wenfeng Liu; Olivier Maury; Christoph Müller; Camilla Novaglio; Juliano Palacios-Abrantes; Colleen M. Petrik; Ando Rabearisoa; Derek P. Tittensor; Andrew Wamukota; Richard Pollnac

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-30991-4

Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Joshua E. Cinner, Iain R. Caldwell, Lauric Thiault, John Ben, Julia L. Blanchard, Marta Coll, Amy Diedrich, Tyler D. Eddy, Jason D. Everett, Christian Folberth, Didier Gascuel, Jerome Guiet, Georgina G. Gurney, Ryan F. Heneghan, Jonas Jägermeyr, Narriman Jiddawi, Rachael Lahari, John Kuange, Wenfeng Liu, Olivier MauryChristoph Müller, Camilla Novaglio, Juliano Palacios-Abrantes, Colleen M. Petrik, Ando Rabearisoa, Derek P. Tittensor, Andrew Wamukota, Richard Pollnac

Medicine

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

49 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.

Original language	English
Article number	3530
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	13
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30991-4
Publication status	Published - Dec 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
J.E.C. is supported by the Australian Research Council (CE140100020, FT160100047, DP110101540, and DP0877905). This work was undertaken as part of the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Research Program on Fish Agri-Food Systems (FISH) led by WorldFish. T.D.E acknowledges support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (RGPIN-2021-04319). M.C. and J.S. acknowledge support from the Spanish project ProOceans (RETOS-PID2020-118097RB-I00) and the ‘Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence’ accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S) to the Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC). G.G.G. acknowledges support from an Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Research Award (DE210101918). C.M.P. acknowledges support from NOAA grants NA20OAR4310441 and NA20OAR4310442. M.C. acknowledges the financial support of Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Proyectos de I+D+I (RETOS-PID2020-118097RB-I00, ProOceans) and the institutional support of the ‘Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence’ accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S).

Funding Information:
J.E.C. is supported by the Australian Research Council (CE140100020, FT160100047, DP110101540, and DP0877905). This work was undertaken as part of the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Research Program on Fish Agri-Food Systems (FISH) led by WorldFish. T.D.E acknowledges support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (RGPIN-2021-04319). M.C. and J.S. acknowledge support from the Spanish project ProOceans (RETOS-PID2020-118097RB-I00) and the ‘Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence’ accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S) to the Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC). G.G.G. acknowledges support from an Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Research Award (DE210101918). C.M.P. acknowledges support from NOAA grants NA20OAR4310441 and NA20OAR4310442. M.C. acknowledges the financial support of Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Proyectos de I+D+I (RETOS-PID2020-118097RB-I00, ProOceans) and the institutional support of the ‘Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence’ accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).

ASJC Scopus Subject Areas

General Chemistry
General Biochemistry,Genetics and Molecular Biology
General
General Physics and Astronomy

PubMed: MeSH publication types

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1038/s41467-022-30991-4

Cite this

Cinner, J. E., Caldwell, I. R., Thiault, L., Ben, J., Blanchard, J. L., Coll, M., Diedrich, A., Eddy, T. D., Everett, J. D., Folberth, C., Gascuel, D., Guiet, J., Gurney, G. G., Heneghan, R. F., Jägermeyr, J., Jiddawi, N., Lahari, R., Kuange, J., Liu, W., ... Pollnac, R. (2022). Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities. Nature Communications, 13(1), Article 3530. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30991-4

Cinner, JE, Caldwell, IR, Thiault, L, Ben, J, Blanchard, JL, Coll, M, Diedrich, A, Eddy, TD, Everett, JD, Folberth, C, Gascuel, D, Guiet, J, Gurney, GG, Heneghan, RF, Jägermeyr, J, Jiddawi, N, Lahari, R, Kuange, J, Liu, W, Maury, O, Müller, C, Novaglio, C, Palacios-Abrantes, J, Petrik, CM, Rabearisoa, A, Tittensor, DP, Wamukota, A & Pollnac, R 2022, 'Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities', Nature Communications, vol. 13, no. 1, 3530. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30991-4

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abstract = "Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.",

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note = "Funding Information: J.E.C. is supported by the Australian Research Council (CE140100020, FT160100047, DP110101540, and DP0877905). This work was undertaken as part of the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Research Program on Fish Agri-Food Systems (FISH) led by WorldFish. T.D.E acknowledges support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (RGPIN-2021-04319). M.C. and J.S. acknowledge support from the Spanish project ProOceans (RETOS-PID2020-118097RB-I00) and the {\textquoteleft}Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence{\textquoteright} accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S) to the Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC). G.G.G. acknowledges support from an Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Research Award (DE210101918). C.M.P. acknowledges support from NOAA grants NA20OAR4310441 and NA20OAR4310442. M.C. acknowledges the financial support of Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci{\'o}n, Proyectos de I+D+I (RETOS-PID2020-118097RB-I00, ProOceans) and the institutional support of the {\textquoteleft}Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence{\textquoteright} accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S). Funding Information: J.E.C. is supported by the Australian Research Council (CE140100020, FT160100047, DP110101540, and DP0877905). This work was undertaken as part of the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Research Program on Fish Agri-Food Systems (FISH) led by WorldFish. T.D.E acknowledges support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (RGPIN-2021-04319). M.C. and J.S. acknowledge support from the Spanish project ProOceans (RETOS-PID2020-118097RB-I00) and the {\textquoteleft}Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence{\textquoteright} accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S) to the Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC). G.G.G. acknowledges support from an Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Research Award (DE210101918). C.M.P. acknowledges support from NOAA grants NA20OAR4310441 and NA20OAR4310442. M.C. acknowledges the financial support of Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci{\'o}n, Proyectos de I+D+I (RETOS-PID2020-118097RB-I00, ProOceans) and the institutional support of the {\textquoteleft}Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence{\textquoteright} accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022, The Author(s).",

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doi = "10.1038/s41467-022-30991-4",

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AU - Caldwell, Iain R.

AU - Thiault, Lauric

AU - Ben, John

AU - Blanchard, Julia L.

AU - Coll, Marta

AU - Diedrich, Amy

AU - Eddy, Tyler D.

AU - Everett, Jason D.

AU - Folberth, Christian

AU - Gascuel, Didier

AU - Guiet, Jerome

AU - Gurney, Georgina G.

AU - Heneghan, Ryan F.

AU - Jägermeyr, Jonas

AU - Jiddawi, Narriman

AU - Lahari, Rachael

AU - Kuange, John

AU - Liu, Wenfeng

AU - Maury, Olivier

AU - Müller, Christoph

AU - Novaglio, Camilla

AU - Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano

AU - Petrik, Colleen M.

AU - Rabearisoa, Ando

AU - Tittensor, Derek P.

AU - Wamukota, Andrew

AU - Pollnac, Richard

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PY - 2022/12

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N2 - Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.

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Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Abstract

Bibliographical note

ASJC Scopus Subject Areas

PubMed: MeSH publication types

UN SDGs

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