Predicting the market evolution of computers: Was the revolution really unforeseen

Steven P. Schnaars; Sergio Carvalho

doi:10.1016/j.techsoc.2003.10.001

Predicting the market evolution of computers: Was the revolution really unforeseen

Steven P. Schnaars, Sergio Carvalho

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This is a study of how people viewed the future prospects for computers from their inception in the mid-1940s to their establishment as an unequivocal market success in 1964. Based on a reading of the published record it compares two hypotheses, one that holds that no one foresaw the tremendous potential of computers-an error of under guessing-the other that holds that most market forecasts are far too optimistic, a error of over guessing. It concludes that only before 1950 did experts fail to foresee the ways in which computers would change our lives. After that date, expectations soared saved only by the fact the sales likewise soared.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1-16
Number of pages	16
Journal	Technology in Society
Volume	26
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2003.10.001
Publication status	Published - Jan 2004
Externally published	Yes

ASJC Scopus Subject Areas

Human Factors and Ergonomics
Business and International Management
Education
Sociology and Political Science

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10.1016/j.techsoc.2003.10.001

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Predicting the market evolution of computers: Was the revolution really unforeseen

Abstract

ASJC Scopus Subject Areas

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