Causes and consequences of variability in larval connectivity

Many commercial, protected, and invasive marine species have an early life stage during which ocean currents can disperse larvae long distances and link populations in geographically distinct areas. This larval connectivity depends on the complex interaction of multiple biological and environmental factors, which makes it challenging to reliably predict a population's resilience or vulnerability to changing climate and human use of the ocean. My research exploits the power of models to examine the causes and consequences of variability in larval recruitment, and to provide decision-makers with practical quantitative advice. I will also train the next generation of marine ecosystem scientists and managers in ways to use modeling to advance our ecological understanding and sustainably manage living marine resources.******The work will focus on Northwest Atlantic sea scallops, which comprise highly valuable fisheries in Eastern Canada and the USA, and for which larval connectivity complicates management by introducing trans-border issues and increased sensitivity to climate change. My trainees and I will build models that characterize scallop spawning, and simulate larval growth, swimming, death and transport by ocean currents. We will conduct a series of strategic model experiments that vary different biological and environmental factors as well as changes in fishing effort and conservation. Results will be modeled "data" for spatial patterns in scallop egg production and larval survivorship between spawning seasons, among past years, and for potential future scenarios. We will use mathematical data analysis techniques, such as image processing, to diagnose those factors with the greatest influence, and to determine critical knowledge gaps that limit our predictive capabilities. ******Our findings will deliver new fundamental knowledge about the factors affecting scallop populations in this and other regions. We will generate testable hypotheses, and prioritize future fieldwork and experiments needed to improve forecast reliability. We will also provide useful advice to fisheries management efforts to quantify risk. The work will also produce research tools that can be used for larval connectivity studies of other marine species, as well as for mathematical ecologists who are striving to develop new methods to deal with model-related uncertainty. Students will gain employable skills in the practice of scientifically-useful and societally-significant modeling.***********