Forecasting the burden of chronic disease in small-areas: a spatial epidemiological approach using linked micro data

Advanced developed nations, including Canada, are undergoing profound demographic shifts that have far-reaching implications for health policy and planning, social policies, and economic development. Over the next decades, our population will age significantly and live longer, there will be a shift in migration patterns, and the levels and sources of immigration will change. These processes are already visible at the macro-level, with the increasing burden of chronic diseases and changes to the demand for health care from a growing population of older people. The impact of demographic shifts are most profoundly felt at the local level, where health care is provided and where communities are tasked with responding to changing health needs. This Planning & Dissemination Grant (PDG) builds on two existing projects in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, with the objective to develop a larger multi-provincial and multi-stakeholder project across the four Provinces in Atlantic Canada. This proposal describes the planning work required to develop a multi-provincial CIHR Project Scheme grant that combines the methodology for small-area rate variation of chronic diseases with that of small-area population forecasting, with the broad objective to forecast the burden of chronic disease for communities in Atlantic Canada. As prior projects have worked to develop the methodology, data structures, and analytic procedures, the project under development will focus on determining the population health impacts within neighbourhoods and communities via a patient-engaged process. The specific activities of this PDG will include the formation of a patient advisory group, hosting a multi-stakeholder planning meeting, preparation of a grant proposal, and submission to the CIHR Project Scheme.