Prediction and predictability of climate extremes

Climate extremes have significant impacts on environmental and social systems. Heatwaves can cause crop failures, deaths, and large-scale power outages; and extreme precipitation can cause flooding and major infrastructure damage. In the ocean, marine heatwaves have led to observable redistributions of marine species, reconfigurations of ecosystems, and economic losses in fisheries and aquaculture industries. It is likely that global warming has altered the frequency, duration and intensity of climate extremes globally, and will continue to do so in the future. Canada in particular faces major challenges and opportunities due to changes in extreme events under climate change. Therefore it is important, ecologically and economically, that we understand the historical context and predictability of climate extremes. This would improve our ability to understand future changes and uncertainties in climate extremes over both the near-term (weeks to seasons) and longer term (years to decades).In the long-term, the proposed research program will investigate the prediction and predictability of extreme events in the ocean and atmosphere. Predictability is related to the theoretical upper limit on what it is possible to predict, while prediction has to do with our technical ability to actually forecast future events. The short-term objectives over the next five years include the examination of the historical variability, seasonal predictions, and future projections, both globally and in the Canadian region, of ocean temperature extremes, atmospheric heatwaves, extreme precipitation and storms, as well as the impact on northern and indigenous communities. These goals will be achieved through the synthesis of numerical ocean and climate modelling, statistical analysis of observations, and the application of physically-informed theories.Climate extremes have dramatic impacts on natural and human systems across Canada. However, there is uncertainty about how extreme events might change under anthropogenic climate change as well as their predictability due to both anthropogenic and natural variability. Understanding drivers of historical variability and projected future changes in climate extremes will provide us with predictability not only of the physical event, but also the associated impacts on marine and terrestrial ecology and biodiversity and human systems such as infrastructure and health. This information can then be used by all government sectors (Federal, Provincial, Municipal, indigenous) and several industries (fisheries, aquaculture, agriculture, etc) to inform planning strategies and development.