Probability of detecting escaped aquaculture salmon is related to distance between production areas and rivers

Description

Salmon that escaped from sea cage aquaculture facilities have been detected in a large number of rivers in eastern North America with the detection of escapees seemingly related to the distance of the river from the production areas. Morris et al. (2008)Footnote 1 compiled the existing information available to 2007 on aquaculture escapees in rivers of eastern North America but did not provide any quantitative analysis that could be used to link the detection of escapees relative to the distance of the rivers from the production areas. This project proposes to update the compilation of observations from Morris et al. (2008) to 2015 , to review the literature on the behaviour of escaped salmon, and based on these components, to examine a series of models with differing assumptions on behaviour and diffusion, for their ability to generate the empirical observations of escapees in monitored rivers. The objective is to examine models that would provide probability statements of observing an escaped salmon in a river based on the distance of the river from the escape location, the intensity of the escape event, and the river monitoring effort. This knowledge will help to inform siting decisions for new aquaculture sites.