Estimating the carrying capacity of French Frigate Shoals for the endangered Hawaiian monk seal using Ecopath with Ecosim

The carrying capacity of the French Frigate Shoals (FFS) region for the endangered Hawaiian monk seal was appraised using an updated version of the original FFS Ecopath model (Polovina 1984). Model parameters were updated using recent literature, and data from surveys of the seal population and its bottom-associated prey. Together they produced a static mass balance model for 1998 when the prey surveys began. The Ecopath-estimated monk seal biomass was 0.0045 t/km², which was in close agreement with the biomass calculated from monk seal field beach counts (0.0046 t/km²). Model simulations through time were done in Ecosim using the Ecopath balanced model and included fisheries data time series from 1998 to 2008. Monk seal biomass declined concurrently with decreases in benthic bottomfish biomass, which were influenced by large-scale changes in the environment of the North Pacific. This model scenario was extended from 2010, when the last permitted fishery in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands was closed, through to 2040, assuming a constant environmental signal. Model results for this time period did not show a recovery of monk seals that exceeded the initial 1998 model biomass levels, highlighting the importance of including environmental variability in estimates of monk seals recovery at FFS.