Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems

Derek P. Tittensor; Camilla Novaglio; Cheryl S. Harrison; Ryan F. Heneghan; Nicolas Barrier; Daniele Bianchi; Laurent Bopp; Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz; Gregory L. Britten; Matthias Büchner; William W.L. Cheung; Villy Christensen; Marta Coll; John P. Dunne; Tyler D. Eddy; Jason D. Everett; Jose A. Fernandes-Salvador; Elizabeth A. Fulton; Eric D. Galbraith; Didier Gascuel; Jerome Guiet; Jasmin G. John; Jason S. Link; Heike K. Lotze; Olivier Maury; Kelly Ortega-Cisneros; Juliano Palacios-Abrantes; Colleen M. Petrik; Hubert du Pontavice; Jonathan Rault; Anthony J. Richardson; Lynne Shannon; Yunne Jai Shin; Jeroen Steenbeek; Charles A. Stock; Julia L. Blanchard

doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9

Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems

Derek P. Tittensor, Camilla Novaglio, Cheryl S. Harrison, Ryan F. Heneghan, Nicolas Barrier, Daniele Bianchi, Laurent Bopp, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Gregory L. Britten, Matthias Büchner, William W.L. Cheung, Villy Christensen, Marta Coll, John P. Dunne, Tyler D. Eddy, Jason D. Everett, Jose A. Fernandes-Salvador, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Eric D. Galbraith, Didier GascuelJerome Guiet, Jasmin G. John, Jason S. Link, Heike K. Lotze, Olivier Maury, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Juliano Palacios-Abrantes, Colleen M. Petrik, Hubert du Pontavice, Jonathan Rault, Anthony J. Richardson, Lynne Shannon, Yunne Jai Shin, Jeroen Steenbeek, Charles A. Stock, Julia L. Blanchard

Medicine

Producción científica: Contribución a una revista › Artículo › revisión exhaustiva

169 Citas (Scopus)

Resumen

Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.

Idioma original	English
Páginas (desde-hasta)	973-981
Número de páginas	9
Publicación	Nature Climate Change
Volumen	11
N.º	11
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9
Estado	Published - nov. 2021

Nota bibliográfica

Funding Information:
We thank ISIMIP for assistance with processing ESM inputs and outputs and the ESM community for enabling these impact analyses. This work was supported by the Jarislowsky Foundation (D.P.T.), the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant programme (D.P.T., H.K.L., T.D.E., W.W.L.C., J.P.-A. and V.C.); Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Projects DP170104240 (J.L.B. and C.N.), DP190102293 (J.L.B., C.N., A.J.R., J.D.E. and D.P.T.) and DP150102656 (J.D.E.); the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements 817578 (TRIATLAS) (M.C., J.S., L.S., O.M., L.B., Y.-J.S., N.B. and J.R.), 869300 (FutureMARES) (J.A.F.-S.,Y.-J.S. and M.C.) and 862428 (MISSION ATLANTIC (J.A.F.-S, Y.-J.S. and M.C.); the Spanish National Project ProOceans (PID2020-118097RB-I00) (M.C. and J.S.); the Open Philanthropy Project (C.S.H.); the United Kingdom Research and Innovation (UKRI) Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) One Ocean Hub (NE/S008950/1) (K.O.-C. and L.S.); the Simons Foundation (nos. 54993, 645921) (G.L.B.); the Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme (SOMBEE project, ANR-18-EBI4-0003-01) (Y.-J.S. and N.B.); the MEOPAR Postdoctoral Fellowship Award 2020–2021 and the Ocean Frontier Institute (Module G) (A.B.-B.); the French ANR project CIGOEF (grant ANR-17-CE32-0008-01) (O.M., L.B. and J.R.); the California Ocean Protection Council Grant C0100400, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE) allocation TG-OCE170017 (D.B. and J.G.); the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association (NA20OAR4310441, NA20OAR4310442) (C.M.P.). M.C. acknowledges the Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S) to the Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC). ZooMSS was run using the computational cluster Katana, supported by Research Technology Services at UNSW Sydney; O.M., N.B. and J.R. acknowledge the Pôle de Calcul et de Données Marines (PCDM) for providing DATARMOR storage and computational resources; W.W.L.C. and J.P.-A. acknowledge advanced computing support from Compute Canada.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s).

ASJC Scopus Subject Areas

Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
Social Sciences (miscellaneous)

PubMed: MeSH publication types

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10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9

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Tittensor, D. P., Novaglio, C., Harrison, C. S., Heneghan, R. F., Barrier, N., Bianchi, D., Bopp, L., Bryndum-Buchholz, A., Britten, G. L., Büchner, M., Cheung, W. W. L., Christensen, V., Coll, M., Dunne, J. P., Eddy, T. D., Everett, J. D., Fernandes-Salvador, J. A., Fulton, E. A., Galbraith, E. D., ... Blanchard, J. L. (2021). Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems. Nature Climate Change, 11(11), 973-981. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9

Tittensor, DP, Novaglio, C, Harrison, CS, Heneghan, RF, Barrier, N, Bianchi, D, Bopp, L, Bryndum-Buchholz, A, Britten, GL, Büchner, M, Cheung, WWL, Christensen, V, Coll, M, Dunne, JP, Eddy, TD, Everett, JD, Fernandes-Salvador, JA, Fulton, EA, Galbraith, ED, Gascuel, D, Guiet, J, John, JG, Link, JS, Lotze, HK, Maury, O, Ortega-Cisneros, K, Palacios-Abrantes, J, Petrik, CM, du Pontavice, H, Rault, J, Richardson, AJ, Shannon, L, Shin, YJ, Steenbeek, J, Stock, CA & Blanchard, JL 2021, 'Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems', Nature Climate Change, vol. 11, n.º 11, pp. 973-981. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9

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title = "Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems",

abstract = "Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.",

author = "Tittensor, {Derek P.} and Camilla Novaglio and Harrison, {Cheryl S.} and Heneghan, {Ryan F.} and Nicolas Barrier and Daniele Bianchi and Laurent Bopp and Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz and Britten, {Gregory L.} and Matthias B{\"u}chner and Cheung, {William W.L.} and Villy Christensen and Marta Coll and Dunne, {John P.} and Eddy, {Tyler D.} and Everett, {Jason D.} and Fernandes-Salvador, {Jose A.} and Fulton, {Elizabeth A.} and Galbraith, {Eric D.} and Didier Gascuel and Jerome Guiet and John, {Jasmin G.} and Link, {Jason S.} and Lotze, {Heike K.} and Olivier Maury and Kelly Ortega-Cisneros and Juliano Palacios-Abrantes and Petrik, {Colleen M.} and {du Pontavice}, Hubert and Jonathan Rault and Richardson, {Anthony J.} and Lynne Shannon and Shin, {Yunne Jai} and Jeroen Steenbeek and Stock, {Charles A.} and Blanchard, {Julia L.}",

note = "Funding Information: We thank ISIMIP for assistance with processing ESM inputs and outputs and the ESM community for enabling these impact analyses. This work was supported by the Jarislowsky Foundation (D.P.T.), the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant programme (D.P.T., H.K.L., T.D.E., W.W.L.C., J.P.-A. and V.C.); Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Projects DP170104240 (J.L.B. and C.N.), DP190102293 (J.L.B., C.N., A.J.R., J.D.E. and D.P.T.) and DP150102656 (J.D.E.); the European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements 817578 (TRIATLAS) (M.C., J.S., L.S., O.M., L.B., Y.-J.S., N.B. and J.R.), 869300 (FutureMARES) (J.A.F.-S.,Y.-J.S. and M.C.) and 862428 (MISSION ATLANTIC (J.A.F.-S, Y.-J.S. and M.C.); the Spanish National Project ProOceans (PID2020-118097RB-I00) (M.C. and J.S.); the Open Philanthropy Project (C.S.H.); the United Kingdom Research and Innovation (UKRI) Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) One Ocean Hub (NE/S008950/1) (K.O.-C. and L.S.); the Simons Foundation (nos. 54993, 645921) (G.L.B.); the Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme (SOMBEE project, ANR-18-EBI4-0003-01) (Y.-J.S. and N.B.); the MEOPAR Postdoctoral Fellowship Award 2020–2021 and the Ocean Frontier Institute (Module G) (A.B.-B.); the French ANR project CIGOEF (grant ANR-17-CE32-0008-01) (O.M., L.B. and J.R.); the California Ocean Protection Council Grant C0100400, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE) allocation TG-OCE170017 (D.B. and J.G.); the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association (NA20OAR4310441, NA20OAR4310442) (C.M.P.). M.C. acknowledges the Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S) to the Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC). ZooMSS was run using the computational cluster Katana, supported by Research Technology Services at UNSW Sydney; O.M., N.B. and J.R. acknowledge the P{\^o}le de Calcul et de Donn{\'e}es Marines (PCDM) for providing DATARMOR storage and computational resources; W.W.L.C. and J.P.-A. acknowledge advanced computing support from Compute Canada. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021, The Author(s).",

year = "2021",

month = nov,

doi = "10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9",

language = "English",

volume = "11",

pages = "973--981",

journal = "Nature Climate Change",

issn = "1758-678X",

publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems

AU - Tittensor, Derek P.

AU - Novaglio, Camilla

AU - Harrison, Cheryl S.

AU - Heneghan, Ryan F.

AU - Barrier, Nicolas

AU - Bianchi, Daniele

AU - Bopp, Laurent

AU - Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea

AU - Britten, Gregory L.

AU - Büchner, Matthias

AU - Cheung, William W.L.

AU - Christensen, Villy

AU - Coll, Marta

AU - Dunne, John P.

AU - Eddy, Tyler D.

AU - Everett, Jason D.

AU - Fernandes-Salvador, Jose A.

AU - Fulton, Elizabeth A.

AU - Galbraith, Eric D.

AU - Gascuel, Didier

AU - Guiet, Jerome

AU - John, Jasmin G.

AU - Link, Jason S.

AU - Lotze, Heike K.

AU - Maury, Olivier

AU - Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly

AU - Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano

AU - Petrik, Colleen M.

AU - du Pontavice, Hubert

AU - Rault, Jonathan

AU - Richardson, Anthony J.

AU - Shannon, Lynne

AU - Shin, Yunne Jai

AU - Steenbeek, Jeroen

AU - Stock, Charles A.

AU - Blanchard, Julia L.

N1 - Funding Information: We thank ISIMIP for assistance with processing ESM inputs and outputs and the ESM community for enabling these impact analyses. This work was supported by the Jarislowsky Foundation (D.P.T.), the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant programme (D.P.T., H.K.L., T.D.E., W.W.L.C., J.P.-A. and V.C.); Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Projects DP170104240 (J.L.B. and C.N.), DP190102293 (J.L.B., C.N., A.J.R., J.D.E. and D.P.T.) and DP150102656 (J.D.E.); the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements 817578 (TRIATLAS) (M.C., J.S., L.S., O.M., L.B., Y.-J.S., N.B. and J.R.), 869300 (FutureMARES) (J.A.F.-S.,Y.-J.S. and M.C.) and 862428 (MISSION ATLANTIC (J.A.F.-S, Y.-J.S. and M.C.); the Spanish National Project ProOceans (PID2020-118097RB-I00) (M.C. and J.S.); the Open Philanthropy Project (C.S.H.); the United Kingdom Research and Innovation (UKRI) Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) One Ocean Hub (NE/S008950/1) (K.O.-C. and L.S.); the Simons Foundation (nos. 54993, 645921) (G.L.B.); the Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme (SOMBEE project, ANR-18-EBI4-0003-01) (Y.-J.S. and N.B.); the MEOPAR Postdoctoral Fellowship Award 2020–2021 and the Ocean Frontier Institute (Module G) (A.B.-B.); the French ANR project CIGOEF (grant ANR-17-CE32-0008-01) (O.M., L.B. and J.R.); the California Ocean Protection Council Grant C0100400, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE) allocation TG-OCE170017 (D.B. and J.G.); the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association (NA20OAR4310441, NA20OAR4310442) (C.M.P.). M.C. acknowledges the Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S) to the Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC). ZooMSS was run using the computational cluster Katana, supported by Research Technology Services at UNSW Sydney; O.M., N.B. and J.R. acknowledge the Pôle de Calcul et de Données Marines (PCDM) for providing DATARMOR storage and computational resources; W.W.L.C. and J.P.-A. acknowledge advanced computing support from Compute Canada. Publisher Copyright: © 2021, The Author(s).

PY - 2021/11

Y1 - 2021/11

N2 - Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.

AB - Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.

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Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems

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PubMed: MeSH publication types

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