Sea-louse abundance on salmon farms in relation to parasite-control policy and climate change

The ectoparasitic copepods, sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis and Caligus spp.), are major pests to salmon aquaculture and can also affect the health and survival of wild salmon. Policies exist to protect wild salmon by delousing farmed fish when louse abundance exceeds a threshold, but their effectiveness under future climate change is uncertain. We fitted a Bayesian model for sea-louse population dynamics and management to timeseries data of sea lice on farmed salmon in Pacific Canada and analysed the model under scenarios of warmer climates. We found that in high-temperature years, current parasite control policy becomes ineffective as sea-louse abundance is expected to increase. We simulated two alternative management scenarios and observed that both would decrease average louse counts on farms in high-temperature years relative to the current system but relied on more delousing treatments than are currently performed. We also found evidence that non-salmonids can play a role in louse transmission to farms, as increased farm colonization of Caligus clemensi occurs in April, coincident with wild herring (Clupea pallasii) spawner abundance. Our results highlight the need for careful management of sea lice on salmon farms in warmer years and the importance of policies designed to account for future environmental change.