Specific niche requirements underpin multidecadal range edge stability, but may introduce barriers for climate change adaptation

Louise B. Firth; Daniel Harris; Julie A. Blaze; Martin P. Marzloff; Aurélien Boyé; Peter I. Miller; Amelia Curd; Mickaël Vasquez; Julia D. Nunn; Nessa E. O’Connor; Anne Marie Power; Nova Mieszkowska; Ruth M. O’Riordan; Michael T. Burrows; Lucy M. Bricheno; Antony M. Knights; Flavia L.D. Nunes; François Bordeyne; Laura E. Bush; James E. Byers; Carmen David; Andrew J. Davies; Stanislas F. Dubois; Hugh Edwards; Andy Foggo; Lisa Grant; J. A.Mattias Green; Paul E. Gribben; Fernando P. Lima; David McGrath; Laure M.L.J. Noël; Rui Seabra; Christina Simkanin; Stephen J. Hawkins

doi:10.1111/ddi.13224

Specific niche requirements underpin multidecadal range edge stability, but may introduce barriers for climate change adaptation

Louise B. Firth, Daniel Harris, Julie A. Blaze, Martin P. Marzloff, Aurélien Boyé, Peter I. Miller, Amelia Curd, Mickaël Vasquez, Julia D. Nunn, Nessa E. O’Connor, Anne Marie Power, Nova Mieszkowska, Ruth M. O’Riordan, Michael T. Burrows, Lucy M. Bricheno, Antony M. Knights, Flavia L.D. Nunes, François Bordeyne, Laura E. Bush, James E. ByersCarmen David, Andrew J. Davies, Stanislas F. Dubois, Hugh Edwards, Andy Foggo, Lisa Grant, J. A.Mattias Green, Paul E. Gribben, Fernando P. Lima, David McGrath, Laure M.L.J. Noël, Rui Seabra, Christina Simkanin, Stephen J. Hawkins

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19 Citas (Scopus)

Resumen

Aim: To investigate some of the environmental variables underpinning the past and present distribution of an ecosystem engineer near its poleward range edge. Location: >500 locations spanning >7,400 km around Ireland. Methods: We collated past and present distribution records on a known climate change indicator, the reef-forming worm Sabellaria alveolata (Linnaeus, 1767) in a biogeographic boundary region over 182 years (1836–2018). This included repeat sampling of 60 locations in the cooler 1950s and again in the warmer 2000s and 2010s. Using species distribution modelling, we identified some of the environmental drivers that likely underpin S. alveolata distribution towards the leading edge of its biogeographical range in Ireland. Results: Through plotting 981 records of presence and absence, we revealed a discontinuous distribution with discretely bounded sub-populations, and edges that coincide with the locations of tidal fronts. Repeat surveys of 60 locations across three time periods showed evidence of population increases, declines, local extirpation and recolonization events within the range, but no evidence of extensions beyond the previously identified distribution limits, despite decades of warming. At a regional scale, populations were relatively stable through time, but local populations in the cold Irish Sea appear highly dynamic and vulnerable to local extirpation risk. Contemporary distribution data (2013–2018) computed with modelled environmental data identified specific niche requirements which can explain the many distribution gaps, namely wave height, tidal amplitude, stratification index, then substrate type. Main conclusions: In the face of climate warming, such specific niche requirements can create environmental barriers that may prevent species from extending beyond their leading edges. These boundaries may limit a species’ capacity to redistribute in response to global environmental change.

Idioma original	English
Páginas (desde-hasta)	668-683
Número de páginas	16
Publicación	Diversity and Distributions
Volumen	27
N.º	4
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13224
Estado	Published - abr. 2021
Publicado de forma externa	Sí

Nota bibliográfica

Funding Information:
Dedication: This paper is dedicated to Edward Forbes FRS FGS (1815-1854) for his pioneering work on biogeography. Alfred Russel Wallace is often referred to as the “Father of biogeography” and Wallace's Line between Borneo and Sulawesi is globally recognized. The line drawn by Forbes representing the “general limit of southern types” is less well known. Perhaps it was the coining of the term “Wallace's Line” and advocating of the concept by the influential Thomas Henry Huxley that facilitated this line becoming the most famous biogeographic demarcation in the world. Since then, a large number of major biogeographic boundary zones have been identified globally, but few have actually been named. We propose the naming of “Forbes' Line” (Figure 1) in recognition of Forbes' pioneering biogeographic work. The authors wish to thank the Irish Research Council and Campus France Ulysses Programme, the Irish Marine Institute and the Marine RDTI Measure Programme, the Linnean Society Percy Sladen Memorial Fund and the Total Foundation for Biodiversity, for supporting this research. Thank you to the Nature Conservancy Council for supporting the collation of many historical records in the 1980s. Data on seabed substrate used in this publication was the seabed substrate multiscale map (version March 2019) made available by the EMODnet Geology project, http://www.emodnet-geology.eu funded by the European Commission Directorate General for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries. Thank you to Rebecca Leaper, Amy Spain-Butler, Alyssa Gehman, Bob Harris, Lilian Harris, Terry Callanan, Albert Lawless for assistance with fieldwork and to Brendan O'Connor and Teresa Darbyshire for taxonomic expertise. Thank you to Liam Lysaght for providing records from the National Biodiversity Data Centre Ireland and to Paolo Viscardi from the Museum of Natural History for photographs. Thank you to Tim Absalom and James Quinn from the University of Plymouth GeoMapping Unit for producing the maps in Figures 1 and 2. A special thank you to Nigel Monaghan from the Museum of Natural History, Dublin for his exceptional hospitality and assistance; and also for showing evidence that St. Patrick did not banish all of the snakes from Ireland!

Funding Information:
Dedication: This paper is dedicated to Edward Forbes FRS FGS (1815‐1854) for his pioneering work on biogeography. Alfred Russel Wallace is often referred to as the “Father of biogeography” and Wallace's Line between Borneo and Sulawesi is globally recognized. The line drawn by Forbes representing the “general limit of southern types” is less well known. Perhaps it was the coining of the term “Wallace's Line” and advocating of the concept by the influential Thomas Henry Huxley that facilitated this line becoming the most famous biogeographic demarcation in the world. Since then, a large number of major biogeographic boundary zones have been identified globally, but few have actually been named. We propose the naming of “Forbes' Line” (Figure 1 ) in recognition of Forbes' pioneering biogeographic work. The authors wish to thank the Irish Research Council and Campus France Ulysses Programme, the Irish Marine Institute and the Marine RDTI Measure Programme, the Linnean Society Percy Sladen Memorial Fund and the Total Foundation for Biodiversity, for supporting this research. Thank you to the Nature Conservancy Council for supporting the collation of many historical records in the 1980s. Data on seabed substrate used in this publication was the seabed substrate multiscale map (version March 2019) made available by the EMODnet Geology project, http://www.emodnet‐geology.eu funded by the European Commission Directorate General for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries. Thank you to Rebecca Leaper, Amy Spain‐Butler, Alyssa Gehman, Bob Harris, Lilian Harris, Terry Callanan, Albert Lawless for assistance with fieldwork and to Brendan O'Connor and Teresa Darbyshire for taxonomic expertise. Thank you to Liam Lysaght for providing records from the National Biodiversity Data Centre Ireland and to Paolo Viscardi from the Museum of Natural History for photographs. Thank you to Tim Absalom and James Quinn from the University of Plymouth GeoMapping Unit for producing the maps in Figures 1 and 2. A special thank you to Nigel Monaghan from the Museum of Natural History, Dublin for his exceptional hospitality and assistance; and also for showing evidence that St. Patrick did not banish all of the snakes from Ireland!

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Authors. Diversity and Distributions published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

ASJC Scopus Subject Areas

Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

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10.1111/ddi.13224

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Firth, L. B., Harris, D., Blaze, J. A., Marzloff, M. P., Boyé, A., Miller, P. I., Curd, A., Vasquez, M., Nunn, J. D., O’Connor, N. E., Power, A. M., Mieszkowska, N., O’Riordan, R. M., Burrows, M. T., Bricheno, L. M., Knights, A. M., Nunes, F. L. D., Bordeyne, F., Bush, L. E., ... Hawkins, S. J. (2021). Specific niche requirements underpin multidecadal range edge stability, but may introduce barriers for climate change adaptation. Diversity and Distributions, 27(4), 668-683. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13224

Firth, LB, Harris, D, Blaze, JA, Marzloff, MP, Boyé, A, Miller, PI, Curd, A, Vasquez, M, Nunn, JD, O’Connor, NE, Power, AM, Mieszkowska, N, O’Riordan, RM, Burrows, MT, Bricheno, LM, Knights, AM, Nunes, FLD, Bordeyne, F, Bush, LE, Byers, JE, David, C, Davies, AJ, Dubois, SF, Edwards, H, Foggo, A, Grant, L, Green, JAM, Gribben, PE, Lima, FP, McGrath, D, Noël, LMLJ, Seabra, R, Simkanin, C & Hawkins, SJ 2021, 'Specific niche requirements underpin multidecadal range edge stability, but may introduce barriers for climate change adaptation', Diversity and Distributions, vol. 27, n.º 4, pp. 668-683. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13224

@article{13918119be5e4a87bcefd94ca39e632e,

title = "Specific niche requirements underpin multidecadal range edge stability, but may introduce barriers for climate change adaptation",

abstract = "Aim: To investigate some of the environmental variables underpinning the past and present distribution of an ecosystem engineer near its poleward range edge. Location: >500 locations spanning >7,400 km around Ireland. Methods: We collated past and present distribution records on a known climate change indicator, the reef-forming worm Sabellaria alveolata (Linnaeus, 1767) in a biogeographic boundary region over 182 years (1836–2018). This included repeat sampling of 60 locations in the cooler 1950s and again in the warmer 2000s and 2010s. Using species distribution modelling, we identified some of the environmental drivers that likely underpin S. alveolata distribution towards the leading edge of its biogeographical range in Ireland. Results: Through plotting 981 records of presence and absence, we revealed a discontinuous distribution with discretely bounded sub-populations, and edges that coincide with the locations of tidal fronts. Repeat surveys of 60 locations across three time periods showed evidence of population increases, declines, local extirpation and recolonization events within the range, but no evidence of extensions beyond the previously identified distribution limits, despite decades of warming. At a regional scale, populations were relatively stable through time, but local populations in the cold Irish Sea appear highly dynamic and vulnerable to local extirpation risk. Contemporary distribution data (2013–2018) computed with modelled environmental data identified specific niche requirements which can explain the many distribution gaps, namely wave height, tidal amplitude, stratification index, then substrate type. Main conclusions: In the face of climate warming, such specific niche requirements can create environmental barriers that may prevent species from extending beyond their leading edges. These boundaries may limit a species{\textquoteright} capacity to redistribute in response to global environmental change.",

author = "Firth, {Louise B.} and Daniel Harris and Blaze, {Julie A.} and Marzloff, {Martin P.} and Aur{\'e}lien Boy{\'e} and Miller, {Peter I.} and Amelia Curd and Micka{\"e}l Vasquez and Nunn, {Julia D.} and O{\textquoteright}Connor, {Nessa E.} and Power, {Anne Marie} and Nova Mieszkowska and O{\textquoteright}Riordan, {Ruth M.} and Burrows, {Michael T.} and Bricheno, {Lucy M.} and Knights, {Antony M.} and Nunes, {Flavia L.D.} and Fran{\c c}ois Bordeyne and Bush, {Laura E.} and Byers, {James E.} and Carmen David and Davies, {Andrew J.} and Dubois, {Stanislas F.} and Hugh Edwards and Andy Foggo and Lisa Grant and Green, {J. A.Mattias} and Gribben, {Paul E.} and Lima, {Fernando P.} and David McGrath and No{\"e}l, {Laure M.L.J.} and Rui Seabra and Christina Simkanin and Hawkins, {Stephen J.}",

note = "Funding Information: Dedication: This paper is dedicated to Edward Forbes FRS FGS (1815-1854) for his pioneering work on biogeography. Alfred Russel Wallace is often referred to as the “Father of biogeography” and Wallace's Line between Borneo and Sulawesi is globally recognized. The line drawn by Forbes representing the “general limit of southern types” is less well known. Perhaps it was the coining of the term “Wallace's Line” and advocating of the concept by the influential Thomas Henry Huxley that facilitated this line becoming the most famous biogeographic demarcation in the world. Since then, a large number of major biogeographic boundary zones have been identified globally, but few have actually been named. We propose the naming of “Forbes' Line” (Figure 1) in recognition of Forbes' pioneering biogeographic work. The authors wish to thank the Irish Research Council and Campus France Ulysses Programme, the Irish Marine Institute and the Marine RDTI Measure Programme, the Linnean Society Percy Sladen Memorial Fund and the Total Foundation for Biodiversity, for supporting this research. Thank you to the Nature Conservancy Council for supporting the collation of many historical records in the 1980s. Data on seabed substrate used in this publication was the seabed substrate multiscale map (version March 2019) made available by the EMODnet Geology project, http://www.emodnet-geology.eu funded by the European Commission Directorate General for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries. Thank you to Rebecca Leaper, Amy Spain-Butler, Alyssa Gehman, Bob Harris, Lilian Harris, Terry Callanan, Albert Lawless for assistance with fieldwork and to Brendan O'Connor and Teresa Darbyshire for taxonomic expertise. Thank you to Liam Lysaght for providing records from the National Biodiversity Data Centre Ireland and to Paolo Viscardi from the Museum of Natural History for photographs. Thank you to Tim Absalom and James Quinn from the University of Plymouth GeoMapping Unit for producing the maps in Figures 1 and 2. A special thank you to Nigel Monaghan from the Museum of Natural History, Dublin for his exceptional hospitality and assistance; and also for showing evidence that St. Patrick did not banish all of the snakes from Ireland! Funding Information: Dedication: This paper is dedicated to Edward Forbes FRS FGS (1815‐1854) for his pioneering work on biogeography. Alfred Russel Wallace is often referred to as the “Father of biogeography” and Wallace's Line between Borneo and Sulawesi is globally recognized. The line drawn by Forbes representing the “general limit of southern types” is less well known. Perhaps it was the coining of the term “Wallace's Line” and advocating of the concept by the influential Thomas Henry Huxley that facilitated this line becoming the most famous biogeographic demarcation in the world. Since then, a large number of major biogeographic boundary zones have been identified globally, but few have actually been named. We propose the naming of “Forbes' Line” (Figure 1 ) in recognition of Forbes' pioneering biogeographic work. The authors wish to thank the Irish Research Council and Campus France Ulysses Programme, the Irish Marine Institute and the Marine RDTI Measure Programme, the Linnean Society Percy Sladen Memorial Fund and the Total Foundation for Biodiversity, for supporting this research. Thank you to the Nature Conservancy Council for supporting the collation of many historical records in the 1980s. Data on seabed substrate used in this publication was the seabed substrate multiscale map (version March 2019) made available by the EMODnet Geology project, http://www.emodnet‐geology.eu funded by the European Commission Directorate General for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries. Thank you to Rebecca Leaper, Amy Spain‐Butler, Alyssa Gehman, Bob Harris, Lilian Harris, Terry Callanan, Albert Lawless for assistance with fieldwork and to Brendan O'Connor and Teresa Darbyshire for taxonomic expertise. Thank you to Liam Lysaght for providing records from the National Biodiversity Data Centre Ireland and to Paolo Viscardi from the Museum of Natural History for photographs. Thank you to Tim Absalom and James Quinn from the University of Plymouth GeoMapping Unit for producing the maps in Figures 1 and 2. A special thank you to Nigel Monaghan from the Museum of Natural History, Dublin for his exceptional hospitality and assistance; and also for showing evidence that St. Patrick did not banish all of the snakes from Ireland! Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 The Authors. Diversity and Distributions published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.",

year = "2021",

month = apr,

doi = "10.1111/ddi.13224",

language = "English",

volume = "27",

pages = "668--683",

journal = "Diversity and Distributions",

issn = "1366-9516",

publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",

number = "4",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Specific niche requirements underpin multidecadal range edge stability, but may introduce barriers for climate change adaptation

AU - Firth, Louise B.

AU - Harris, Daniel

AU - Blaze, Julie A.

AU - Marzloff, Martin P.

AU - Boyé, Aurélien

AU - Miller, Peter I.

AU - Curd, Amelia

AU - Vasquez, Mickaël

AU - Nunn, Julia D.

AU - O’Connor, Nessa E.

AU - Power, Anne Marie

AU - Mieszkowska, Nova

AU - O’Riordan, Ruth M.

AU - Burrows, Michael T.

AU - Bricheno, Lucy M.

AU - Knights, Antony M.

AU - Nunes, Flavia L.D.

AU - Bordeyne, François

AU - Bush, Laura E.

AU - Byers, James E.

AU - David, Carmen

AU - Davies, Andrew J.

AU - Dubois, Stanislas F.

AU - Edwards, Hugh

AU - Foggo, Andy

AU - Grant, Lisa

AU - Green, J. A.Mattias

AU - Gribben, Paul E.

AU - Lima, Fernando P.

AU - McGrath, David

AU - Noël, Laure M.L.J.

AU - Seabra, Rui

AU - Simkanin, Christina

AU - Hawkins, Stephen J.

N1 - Funding Information: Dedication: This paper is dedicated to Edward Forbes FRS FGS (1815-1854) for his pioneering work on biogeography. Alfred Russel Wallace is often referred to as the “Father of biogeography” and Wallace's Line between Borneo and Sulawesi is globally recognized. The line drawn by Forbes representing the “general limit of southern types” is less well known. Perhaps it was the coining of the term “Wallace's Line” and advocating of the concept by the influential Thomas Henry Huxley that facilitated this line becoming the most famous biogeographic demarcation in the world. Since then, a large number of major biogeographic boundary zones have been identified globally, but few have actually been named. We propose the naming of “Forbes' Line” (Figure 1) in recognition of Forbes' pioneering biogeographic work. The authors wish to thank the Irish Research Council and Campus France Ulysses Programme, the Irish Marine Institute and the Marine RDTI Measure Programme, the Linnean Society Percy Sladen Memorial Fund and the Total Foundation for Biodiversity, for supporting this research. Thank you to the Nature Conservancy Council for supporting the collation of many historical records in the 1980s. Data on seabed substrate used in this publication was the seabed substrate multiscale map (version March 2019) made available by the EMODnet Geology project, http://www.emodnet-geology.eu funded by the European Commission Directorate General for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries. Thank you to Rebecca Leaper, Amy Spain-Butler, Alyssa Gehman, Bob Harris, Lilian Harris, Terry Callanan, Albert Lawless for assistance with fieldwork and to Brendan O'Connor and Teresa Darbyshire for taxonomic expertise. Thank you to Liam Lysaght for providing records from the National Biodiversity Data Centre Ireland and to Paolo Viscardi from the Museum of Natural History for photographs. Thank you to Tim Absalom and James Quinn from the University of Plymouth GeoMapping Unit for producing the maps in Figures 1 and 2. A special thank you to Nigel Monaghan from the Museum of Natural History, Dublin for his exceptional hospitality and assistance; and also for showing evidence that St. Patrick did not banish all of the snakes from Ireland! Funding Information: Dedication: This paper is dedicated to Edward Forbes FRS FGS (1815‐1854) for his pioneering work on biogeography. Alfred Russel Wallace is often referred to as the “Father of biogeography” and Wallace's Line between Borneo and Sulawesi is globally recognized. The line drawn by Forbes representing the “general limit of southern types” is less well known. Perhaps it was the coining of the term “Wallace's Line” and advocating of the concept by the influential Thomas Henry Huxley that facilitated this line becoming the most famous biogeographic demarcation in the world. Since then, a large number of major biogeographic boundary zones have been identified globally, but few have actually been named. We propose the naming of “Forbes' Line” (Figure 1 ) in recognition of Forbes' pioneering biogeographic work. The authors wish to thank the Irish Research Council and Campus France Ulysses Programme, the Irish Marine Institute and the Marine RDTI Measure Programme, the Linnean Society Percy Sladen Memorial Fund and the Total Foundation for Biodiversity, for supporting this research. Thank you to the Nature Conservancy Council for supporting the collation of many historical records in the 1980s. Data on seabed substrate used in this publication was the seabed substrate multiscale map (version March 2019) made available by the EMODnet Geology project, http://www.emodnet‐geology.eu funded by the European Commission Directorate General for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries. Thank you to Rebecca Leaper, Amy Spain‐Butler, Alyssa Gehman, Bob Harris, Lilian Harris, Terry Callanan, Albert Lawless for assistance with fieldwork and to Brendan O'Connor and Teresa Darbyshire for taxonomic expertise. Thank you to Liam Lysaght for providing records from the National Biodiversity Data Centre Ireland and to Paolo Viscardi from the Museum of Natural History for photographs. Thank you to Tim Absalom and James Quinn from the University of Plymouth GeoMapping Unit for producing the maps in Figures 1 and 2. A special thank you to Nigel Monaghan from the Museum of Natural History, Dublin for his exceptional hospitality and assistance; and also for showing evidence that St. Patrick did not banish all of the snakes from Ireland! Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Authors. Diversity and Distributions published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

PY - 2021/4

Y1 - 2021/4

N2 - Aim: To investigate some of the environmental variables underpinning the past and present distribution of an ecosystem engineer near its poleward range edge. Location: >500 locations spanning >7,400 km around Ireland. Methods: We collated past and present distribution records on a known climate change indicator, the reef-forming worm Sabellaria alveolata (Linnaeus, 1767) in a biogeographic boundary region over 182 years (1836–2018). This included repeat sampling of 60 locations in the cooler 1950s and again in the warmer 2000s and 2010s. Using species distribution modelling, we identified some of the environmental drivers that likely underpin S. alveolata distribution towards the leading edge of its biogeographical range in Ireland. Results: Through plotting 981 records of presence and absence, we revealed a discontinuous distribution with discretely bounded sub-populations, and edges that coincide with the locations of tidal fronts. Repeat surveys of 60 locations across three time periods showed evidence of population increases, declines, local extirpation and recolonization events within the range, but no evidence of extensions beyond the previously identified distribution limits, despite decades of warming. At a regional scale, populations were relatively stable through time, but local populations in the cold Irish Sea appear highly dynamic and vulnerable to local extirpation risk. Contemporary distribution data (2013–2018) computed with modelled environmental data identified specific niche requirements which can explain the many distribution gaps, namely wave height, tidal amplitude, stratification index, then substrate type. Main conclusions: In the face of climate warming, such specific niche requirements can create environmental barriers that may prevent species from extending beyond their leading edges. These boundaries may limit a species’ capacity to redistribute in response to global environmental change.

AB - Aim: To investigate some of the environmental variables underpinning the past and present distribution of an ecosystem engineer near its poleward range edge. Location: >500 locations spanning >7,400 km around Ireland. Methods: We collated past and present distribution records on a known climate change indicator, the reef-forming worm Sabellaria alveolata (Linnaeus, 1767) in a biogeographic boundary region over 182 years (1836–2018). This included repeat sampling of 60 locations in the cooler 1950s and again in the warmer 2000s and 2010s. Using species distribution modelling, we identified some of the environmental drivers that likely underpin S. alveolata distribution towards the leading edge of its biogeographical range in Ireland. Results: Through plotting 981 records of presence and absence, we revealed a discontinuous distribution with discretely bounded sub-populations, and edges that coincide with the locations of tidal fronts. Repeat surveys of 60 locations across three time periods showed evidence of population increases, declines, local extirpation and recolonization events within the range, but no evidence of extensions beyond the previously identified distribution limits, despite decades of warming. At a regional scale, populations were relatively stable through time, but local populations in the cold Irish Sea appear highly dynamic and vulnerable to local extirpation risk. Contemporary distribution data (2013–2018) computed with modelled environmental data identified specific niche requirements which can explain the many distribution gaps, namely wave height, tidal amplitude, stratification index, then substrate type. Main conclusions: In the face of climate warming, such specific niche requirements can create environmental barriers that may prevent species from extending beyond their leading edges. These boundaries may limit a species’ capacity to redistribute in response to global environmental change.

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Specific niche requirements underpin multidecadal range edge stability, but may introduce barriers for climate change adaptation

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