The impact of excluding or including Death Certificate Initiated (DCI) cases on estimated cancer survival: A simulation study

Therese M.L. Andersson; Tor Åge Myklebust; Mark J. Rutherford; Bjørn Møller; Isabelle Soerjomataram; Melina Arnold; Freddie Bray; D. Max Parkin; Peter Sasieni; Oliver Bucher; Prithwish De; Gerda Engholm; Anna Gavin; Alana Little; Geoff Porter; Agnihotram V. Ramanakumar; Nathalie Saint-Jacques; Paul M. Walsh; Ryan R. Woods; Paul C. Lambert

doi:10.1016/j.canep.2020.101881

The impact of excluding or including Death Certificate Initiated (DCI) cases on estimated cancer survival: A simulation study

Therese M.L. Andersson, Tor Åge Myklebust, Mark J. Rutherford, Bjørn Møller, Isabelle Soerjomataram, Melina Arnold, Freddie Bray, D. Max Parkin, Peter Sasieni, Oliver Bucher, Prithwish De, Gerda Engholm, Anna Gavin, Alana Little, Geoff Porter, Agnihotram V. Ramanakumar, Nathalie Saint-Jacques, Paul M. Walsh, Ryan R. Woods, Paul C. Lambert

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13 Citas (Scopus)

Resumen

Background: Population-based cancer registries strive to cover all cancer cases diagnosed within the population, but some cases will always be missed and no register is 100 % complete. Many cancer registries use death certificates to identify additional cases not captured through other routine sources, to hopefully add a large proportion of the missed cases. Cases notified through this route, who would not have been captured without death certificate information, are referred to as Death Certificate Initiated (DCI) cases. Inclusion of DCI cases in cancer registries increases completeness and is important for estimating cancer incidence. However, inclusion of DCI cases will generally lead to biased estimates of cancer survival, but the same is often also true if excluding DCI cases. Missed cases are probably not a random sample of all cancer cases, but rather cases with poor prognosis. Further, DCI cases have poorer prognosis than missed cases in general, since they have all died with cancer mentioned on the death certificates. Methods: We performed a simulation study to estimate the impact of including or excluding DCI cases on cancer survival estimates, under different scenarios. Results: We demonstrated that including DCI cases underestimates survival. The exclusion of DCI cases gives unbiased survival estimates if missed cases are a random sample of all cancer cases, while survival is overestimated if these have poorer prognosis. Conclusion: In our most extreme scenarios, with 25 % of cases initially missed, the usual practice of including DCI cases underestimated 5-year survival by at most 3 percentage points.

Idioma original	English
Número de artículo	101881
Publicación	Cancer Epidemiology
Volumen	71
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.canep.2020.101881
Estado	Published - abr. 2021
Publicado de forma externa	Sí

Nota bibliográfica

Funding Information:
The ICBP is funded by the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer ; Cancer Council Victoria ; Cancer Institute New South Wales ; Cancer Research UK ; Danish Cancer Society ; National Cancer Registry Ireland ; The Cancer Society of New Zealand ; NHS England ; Norwegian Cancer Society ; Public Health Agency Northern Ireland on behalf of the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry ; DG Health and Social Care, Scottish Government ; Western Australia Department of Health ; Public Health Wales NHS Trust .

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020

ASJC Scopus Subject Areas

Epidemiology
Oncology
Cancer Research

PubMed: MeSH publication types

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

ODS de las Naciones Unidas

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10.1016/j.canep.2020.101881

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Andersson, T. M. L., Myklebust, T. Å., Rutherford, M. J., Møller, B., Soerjomataram, I., Arnold, M., Bray, F., Parkin, D. M., Sasieni, P., Bucher, O., De, P., Engholm, G., Gavin, A., Little, A., Porter, G., Ramanakumar, A. V., Saint-Jacques, N., Walsh, P. M., Woods, R. R., & Lambert, P. C. (2021). The impact of excluding or including Death Certificate Initiated (DCI) cases on estimated cancer survival: A simulation study. Cancer Epidemiology, 71, Artículo 101881. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.canep.2020.101881

Andersson, TML, Myklebust, TÅ, Rutherford, MJ, Møller, B, Soerjomataram, I, Arnold, M, Bray, F, Parkin, DM, Sasieni, P, Bucher, O, De, P, Engholm, G, Gavin, A, Little, A, Porter, G, Ramanakumar, AV, Saint-Jacques, N, Walsh, PM, Woods, RR & Lambert, PC 2021, 'The impact of excluding or including Death Certificate Initiated (DCI) cases on estimated cancer survival: A simulation study', Cancer Epidemiology, vol. 71, 101881. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.canep.2020.101881

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title = "The impact of excluding or including Death Certificate Initiated (DCI) cases on estimated cancer survival: A simulation study",

abstract = "Background: Population-based cancer registries strive to cover all cancer cases diagnosed within the population, but some cases will always be missed and no register is 100 % complete. Many cancer registries use death certificates to identify additional cases not captured through other routine sources, to hopefully add a large proportion of the missed cases. Cases notified through this route, who would not have been captured without death certificate information, are referred to as Death Certificate Initiated (DCI) cases. Inclusion of DCI cases in cancer registries increases completeness and is important for estimating cancer incidence. However, inclusion of DCI cases will generally lead to biased estimates of cancer survival, but the same is often also true if excluding DCI cases. Missed cases are probably not a random sample of all cancer cases, but rather cases with poor prognosis. Further, DCI cases have poorer prognosis than missed cases in general, since they have all died with cancer mentioned on the death certificates. Methods: We performed a simulation study to estimate the impact of including or excluding DCI cases on cancer survival estimates, under different scenarios. Results: We demonstrated that including DCI cases underestimates survival. The exclusion of DCI cases gives unbiased survival estimates if missed cases are a random sample of all cancer cases, while survival is overestimated if these have poorer prognosis. Conclusion: In our most extreme scenarios, with 25 % of cases initially missed, the usual practice of including DCI cases underestimated 5-year survival by at most 3 percentage points.",

author = "Andersson, {Therese M.L.} and Myklebust, {Tor {\AA}ge} and Rutherford, {Mark J.} and Bj{\o}rn M{\o}ller and Isabelle Soerjomataram and Melina Arnold and Freddie Bray and Parkin, {D. Max} and Peter Sasieni and Oliver Bucher and Prithwish De and Gerda Engholm and Anna Gavin and Alana Little and Geoff Porter and Ramanakumar, {Agnihotram V.} and Nathalie Saint-Jacques and Walsh, {Paul M.} and Woods, {Ryan R.} and Lambert, {Paul C.}",

note = "Funding Information: The ICBP is funded by the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer ; Cancer Council Victoria ; Cancer Institute New South Wales ; Cancer Research UK ; Danish Cancer Society ; National Cancer Registry Ireland ; The Cancer Society of New Zealand ; NHS England ; Norwegian Cancer Society ; Public Health Agency Northern Ireland on behalf of the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry ; DG Health and Social Care, Scottish Government ; Western Australia Department of Health ; Public Health Wales NHS Trust . Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020",

year = "2021",

month = apr,

doi = "10.1016/j.canep.2020.101881",

language = "English",

volume = "71",

journal = "Cancer Epidemiology",

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T1 - The impact of excluding or including Death Certificate Initiated (DCI) cases on estimated cancer survival

T2 - A simulation study

AU - Andersson, Therese M.L.

AU - Myklebust, Tor Åge

AU - Rutherford, Mark J.

AU - Møller, Bjørn

AU - Soerjomataram, Isabelle

AU - Arnold, Melina

AU - Bray, Freddie

AU - Parkin, D. Max

AU - Sasieni, Peter

AU - Bucher, Oliver

AU - De, Prithwish

AU - Engholm, Gerda

AU - Gavin, Anna

AU - Little, Alana

AU - Porter, Geoff

AU - Ramanakumar, Agnihotram V.

AU - Saint-Jacques, Nathalie

AU - Walsh, Paul M.

AU - Woods, Ryan R.

AU - Lambert, Paul C.

N1 - Funding Information: The ICBP is funded by the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer ; Cancer Council Victoria ; Cancer Institute New South Wales ; Cancer Research UK ; Danish Cancer Society ; National Cancer Registry Ireland ; The Cancer Society of New Zealand ; NHS England ; Norwegian Cancer Society ; Public Health Agency Northern Ireland on behalf of the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry ; DG Health and Social Care, Scottish Government ; Western Australia Department of Health ; Public Health Wales NHS Trust . Publisher Copyright: © 2020

PY - 2021/4

Y1 - 2021/4

N2 - Background: Population-based cancer registries strive to cover all cancer cases diagnosed within the population, but some cases will always be missed and no register is 100 % complete. Many cancer registries use death certificates to identify additional cases not captured through other routine sources, to hopefully add a large proportion of the missed cases. Cases notified through this route, who would not have been captured without death certificate information, are referred to as Death Certificate Initiated (DCI) cases. Inclusion of DCI cases in cancer registries increases completeness and is important for estimating cancer incidence. However, inclusion of DCI cases will generally lead to biased estimates of cancer survival, but the same is often also true if excluding DCI cases. Missed cases are probably not a random sample of all cancer cases, but rather cases with poor prognosis. Further, DCI cases have poorer prognosis than missed cases in general, since they have all died with cancer mentioned on the death certificates. Methods: We performed a simulation study to estimate the impact of including or excluding DCI cases on cancer survival estimates, under different scenarios. Results: We demonstrated that including DCI cases underestimates survival. The exclusion of DCI cases gives unbiased survival estimates if missed cases are a random sample of all cancer cases, while survival is overestimated if these have poorer prognosis. Conclusion: In our most extreme scenarios, with 25 % of cases initially missed, the usual practice of including DCI cases underestimated 5-year survival by at most 3 percentage points.

AB - Background: Population-based cancer registries strive to cover all cancer cases diagnosed within the population, but some cases will always be missed and no register is 100 % complete. Many cancer registries use death certificates to identify additional cases not captured through other routine sources, to hopefully add a large proportion of the missed cases. Cases notified through this route, who would not have been captured without death certificate information, are referred to as Death Certificate Initiated (DCI) cases. Inclusion of DCI cases in cancer registries increases completeness and is important for estimating cancer incidence. However, inclusion of DCI cases will generally lead to biased estimates of cancer survival, but the same is often also true if excluding DCI cases. Missed cases are probably not a random sample of all cancer cases, but rather cases with poor prognosis. Further, DCI cases have poorer prognosis than missed cases in general, since they have all died with cancer mentioned on the death certificates. Methods: We performed a simulation study to estimate the impact of including or excluding DCI cases on cancer survival estimates, under different scenarios. Results: We demonstrated that including DCI cases underestimates survival. The exclusion of DCI cases gives unbiased survival estimates if missed cases are a random sample of all cancer cases, while survival is overestimated if these have poorer prognosis. Conclusion: In our most extreme scenarios, with 25 % of cases initially missed, the usual practice of including DCI cases underestimated 5-year survival by at most 3 percentage points.

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The impact of excluding or including Death Certificate Initiated (DCI) cases on estimated cancer survival: A simulation study

Resumen

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ASJC Scopus Subject Areas

PubMed: MeSH publication types

ODS de las Naciones Unidas

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