Understanding long-term cumulative human impacts on marine resources and ecosystems

The critical state of marine resources and their supporting ocean ecosystems is of profound ecological, economical, and ethical concern for our society today. Marine resources and ecosystems have been affected by human activities throughout history, but the rate and scale of human impacts and resulting ecological changes have accelerated over time. One fundamental question in science, management, and conservation is: How much have human impacts changed species abundance and ecosystem structure in the past and what does this mean for species survival and the functioning of ecosystems today and in the future? In order to judge the current state of degradation or recovery of any system it is essential to establish a historical baseline for comparison. Moreover, future predictions rely on understanding long-term trends and the underlying causes and consequences of change. Our current understanding of cumulative effects of multiple human impacts is weak, particularly over large temporal and spatial scales. The proposed research program addresses these issues by focusing on two major objectives: (1) to reconstruct historical changes, assess current states, and develop future predictions for marine resources and the structure and functioning of coastal ecosystems, and (2) to unravel the cumulative effects of multiple human impacts on marine species and ecosystems. This research will integrate different ecological units (species, habitats, ecosystems), temporal (past, present, future) and spatial scales (local, regional, global), and apply a combination of methods including time-series analysis, ecological modeling, and multi-factorial field surveys and laboratory experiments. Overall, the proposed research program will enhance scientific knowledge and capacity in the developing fields of ecological history, ecological forecasting, and the cumulative effects of multiple ecological controls. The scientific and applied importance make this research program ideal to contribute to and train highly qualified personnel for future needs in science, management, and conservation.