Résumé
Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within-and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. The systematic generation, collation, and comparison of results from Fish-MIP will inform an understanding of the range of plausible changes in marine ecosystems and improve our capacity to define and convey the strengths and weaknesses of model-based advice on future states of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Ultimately, Fish-MIP represents a step towards bringing together the marine ecosystem modelling community to produce consistent ensemble medium-and long-term projections of marine ecosystems.
| Langue d'origine | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (de-à) | 1421-1442 |
| Nombre de pages | 22 |
| Journal | Geoscientific Model Development |
| Volume | 11 |
| Numéro de publication | 4 |
| DOI | |
| Statut de publication | Published - avr. 13 2018 |
Note bibliographique
Funding Information:Acknowledgements. Financial support was provided by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant no. 01LS1201A1) through the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). We thank Reg Watson for supporting CMIP5 data preparation, and we thank John Dunne and Keith Lindsay for helping provide us with access to ESM outputs. Derek P. Tittensor thanks the Kanne Rassmussen Foundation, Denmark and the Cambridge Conservation Initiative (grant CCI-05-14-018) for financial support that facilitated work on this paper. Additional financial support for the CMIP5 input data preparation was provided by the Australian Research Council Discovery project (DP140101377). Heike K. Lotze acknowledges financial support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada. Julia L. Blanchard acknowledges the UK Natural Environment Research Council and Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (grant number NE/L003279/1). Susa Niiranen acknowledges support from the NordForsk-funded project Green Growth Based on Marine Resources: Ecological and Socio-Economic Constraints. Marta Coll was partially funded by the European Commission through the Marie Curie Career Integration Grant Fellowships (PCIG10-GA-2011-303534) to the BIOWEB project. Simon Jennings acknowledges support from the UK Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. Jose A. Fernandes received funding from the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant number 35 678193 (Climate Change and European Aquatic Resources) and further funding through the Gipuzkoa Talent Fellowships programme, by the Gipuzkoa Provincial Council, Spain. Yunne-Jai Shin and Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos were partly funded through the EMIBIOS project (FRB Fondation pour la Recherche sur la Biodiversité; contract no. APP-SCEN-2010-II). Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos is grateful for financial support from the IMARPE-PRODUCE-IADB Project “Adaptation to climate change of the fishery sector and marine-coastal ecosystem of Perú” (PE-G1001/PE-T1297). Beth Fulton acknowledges funding from both the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation and CSIRO. Eric Galbraith acknowledges funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 682602).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 Author(s).
ASJC Scopus Subject Areas
- Modelling and Simulation
- General Earth and Planetary Sciences
ODD de l’ONU
Cette action contribue à la réalisation des objectifs de développement durable suivants
