Development of a clinical risk score to predict death in patients with COVID-19

Ghadeer Alhamar, Ernesto Maddaloni, Abdullah Al Shukry, Salman Al-Sabah, Mohannad Al-Haddad, Sarah Al-Youha, Mohammed Jamal, Sulaiman Almazeedi, Abdullah A. Al-Shammari, Mohamed Abu-Farha, Jehad Abubaker, Abdulnabi T. Alattar, Ebaa AlOzairi, Francesco Alessandri, Luca D’Onofrio, Gaetano Leto, Carlo Maria Mastroianni, Carmen Mignogna, Giuseppe Pascarella, Francesco PuglieseHamad Ali, Fahd Al Mulla, Raffaella Buzzetti, Paolo Pozzilli

Résultat de recherche: Articleexamen par les pairs

8 Citations (Scopus)

Résumé

Objective: To build a clinical risk score to aid risk stratification among hospitalised COVID-19 patients. Methods: The score was built using data of 417 consecutive COVID-19 in patients from Kuwait. Risk factors for COVID-19 mortality were identified by multivariate logistic regressions and assigned weighted points proportional to their beta coefficient values. A final score was obtained for each patient and tested against death to calculate an Receiver-operating characteristic curve. Youden's index was used to determine the cut-off value for death prediction risk. The score was internally validated using another COVID-19 Kuwaiti-patient cohort of 923 patients. External validation was carried out using 178 patients from the Italian CoViDiab cohort. Results: Deceased COVID-19 patients more likely showed glucose levels of 7.0–11.1 mmol/L (34.4%, p < 0.0001) or >11.1 mmol/L (44.3%, p < 0.0001), and comorbidities such as diabetes and hypertension compared to those who survived (39.3% vs. 20.4% [p = 0.0027] and 45.9% vs. 26.6% [p = 0.0036], respectively). The risk factors for in-hospital mortality in the final model were gender, nationality, asthma, and glucose categories (<5.0, 5.5–6.9, 7.0–11.1, or 11.1 > mmol/L). A score of ≥5.5 points predicted death with 75% sensitivity and 86.3% specificity (area under the curve (AUC) 0.901). Internal validation resulted in an AUC of 0.826, and external validation showed an AUC of 0.687. Conclusion: This clinical risk score was built with easy-to-collect data and had good probability of predicting in-hospital death among COVID-19 patients.

Langue d'origineEnglish
JournalDiabetes/Metabolism Research and Reviews
DOI
Statut de publicationAccepted/In press - 2022
Publié à l'externeOui

Note bibliographique

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

ASJC Scopus Subject Areas

  • Internal Medicine
  • Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism
  • Endocrinology

PubMed: MeSH publication types

  • Journal Article

Empreinte numérique

Plonger dans les sujets de recherche 'Development of a clinical risk score to predict death in patients with COVID-19'. Ensemble, ils forment une empreinte numérique unique.

Citer