TY - JOUR
T1 - Development of a clinical risk score to predict death in patients with COVID-19
AU - Alhamar, Ghadeer
AU - Maddaloni, Ernesto
AU - Al Shukry, Abdullah
AU - Al-Sabah, Salman
AU - Al-Haddad, Mohannad
AU - Al-Youha, Sarah
AU - Jamal, Mohammed
AU - Almazeedi, Sulaiman
AU - Al-Shammari, Abdullah A.
AU - Abu-Farha, Mohamed
AU - Abubaker, Jehad
AU - Alattar, Abdulnabi T.
AU - AlOzairi, Ebaa
AU - Alessandri, Francesco
AU - D’Onofrio, Luca
AU - Leto, Gaetano
AU - Mastroianni, Carlo Maria
AU - Mignogna, Carmen
AU - Pascarella, Giuseppe
AU - Pugliese, Francesco
AU - Ali, Hamad
AU - Al Mulla, Fahd
AU - Buzzetti, Raffaella
AU - Pozzilli, Paolo
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - Objective: To build a clinical risk score to aid risk stratification among hospitalised COVID-19 patients. Methods: The score was built using data of 417 consecutive COVID-19 in patients from Kuwait. Risk factors for COVID-19 mortality were identified by multivariate logistic regressions and assigned weighted points proportional to their beta coefficient values. A final score was obtained for each patient and tested against death to calculate an Receiver-operating characteristic curve. Youden's index was used to determine the cut-off value for death prediction risk. The score was internally validated using another COVID-19 Kuwaiti-patient cohort of 923 patients. External validation was carried out using 178 patients from the Italian CoViDiab cohort. Results: Deceased COVID-19 patients more likely showed glucose levels of 7.0–11.1 mmol/L (34.4%, p < 0.0001) or >11.1 mmol/L (44.3%, p < 0.0001), and comorbidities such as diabetes and hypertension compared to those who survived (39.3% vs. 20.4% [p = 0.0027] and 45.9% vs. 26.6% [p = 0.0036], respectively). The risk factors for in-hospital mortality in the final model were gender, nationality, asthma, and glucose categories (<5.0, 5.5–6.9, 7.0–11.1, or 11.1 > mmol/L). A score of ≥5.5 points predicted death with 75% sensitivity and 86.3% specificity (area under the curve (AUC) 0.901). Internal validation resulted in an AUC of 0.826, and external validation showed an AUC of 0.687. Conclusion: This clinical risk score was built with easy-to-collect data and had good probability of predicting in-hospital death among COVID-19 patients.
AB - Objective: To build a clinical risk score to aid risk stratification among hospitalised COVID-19 patients. Methods: The score was built using data of 417 consecutive COVID-19 in patients from Kuwait. Risk factors for COVID-19 mortality were identified by multivariate logistic regressions and assigned weighted points proportional to their beta coefficient values. A final score was obtained for each patient and tested against death to calculate an Receiver-operating characteristic curve. Youden's index was used to determine the cut-off value for death prediction risk. The score was internally validated using another COVID-19 Kuwaiti-patient cohort of 923 patients. External validation was carried out using 178 patients from the Italian CoViDiab cohort. Results: Deceased COVID-19 patients more likely showed glucose levels of 7.0–11.1 mmol/L (34.4%, p < 0.0001) or >11.1 mmol/L (44.3%, p < 0.0001), and comorbidities such as diabetes and hypertension compared to those who survived (39.3% vs. 20.4% [p = 0.0027] and 45.9% vs. 26.6% [p = 0.0036], respectively). The risk factors for in-hospital mortality in the final model were gender, nationality, asthma, and glucose categories (<5.0, 5.5–6.9, 7.0–11.1, or 11.1 > mmol/L). A score of ≥5.5 points predicted death with 75% sensitivity and 86.3% specificity (area under the curve (AUC) 0.901). Internal validation resulted in an AUC of 0.826, and external validation showed an AUC of 0.687. Conclusion: This clinical risk score was built with easy-to-collect data and had good probability of predicting in-hospital death among COVID-19 patients.
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U2 - 10.1002/dmrr.3526
DO - 10.1002/dmrr.3526
M3 - Article
C2 - 35262260
AN - SCOPUS:85126831193
SN - 1520-7552
JO - Diabetes/Metabolism Research and Reviews
JF - Diabetes/Metabolism Research and Reviews
ER -