Panic in the Pandemic: When Should Kidney Transplant Programs Close?

Background: Pandemics greatly interfere with overall health care delivery as resources are diverted to combat the crisis. Kidney transplantation programs were closed temporarily during the COVID-19 pandemic. Given the critical shortage of organs, their short shelf life, and their overall importance to improving length and quality of life for those with kidney disease, this analysis examines the impact of discarding deceased donor organs. Methods: The net benefit (or harm) of discarding deceased donor organs was measured in projected life years from a societal and individual perspective using a Markov model. A wide range of infection rates, pandemic durations, and case fatality rates associated with infection in wait listed and transplant recipients were examined. Results: Overall, patient life expectancy fell for both wait listed and transplant recipients as the pandemic conditions became more unfavorable. However, the overall net benefit of a transplant during the pandemic was preserved. For example, prior to the pandemic, the net benefit of a kidney transplant over dialysis was calculated to be 6.25 life years (LYs) or 8.24 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in a 40-year old recipient. This fell to 5.86 LYs (7.78 QALYs) during the pandemic. Even assuming plausible but higher relative case fatality rates and risks of nosocomial and donor transmission in transplant recipients compared to wait listed patients, the net benefit remained >4 years for most deceased donor organs. Conclusion: As long as hospitals have adequate resources to deal with the pandemic and can limit nosocomial infection, kidney transplantation should not be curtailed.