Spatial Patterns and Predictors of Drift Algal Subsidy in Deep Subtidal Environments

The movement of resource subsidies across natural systems can have important effects on recipient communities and has emerged as a key research area in ecology. Detrital subsidies are critical in marine ecosystems where communities are reliant on external sources of primary production, yet few studies have quantified the spatial extent of drift algae at coastal scales. Using observations of the seafloor (up to 140 m depth) from tow-camera surveys along 145 km of Nova Scotia coast, and bathymetric data of this region, we created the first predictive map of drift subsidy in a marine ecosystem. We used a random forest model to generate our predictions, which correctly classified 95 % of observations into a presence or absence of drift. Distance from source, slope, and bathymetric position index (elevation relative to surrounding landscape) was the main predictor variables of the occurrence of drift. Drift algae occurred across a range of benthic habitats within our study area, but most frequently within 1.4 km of the coast on flat bottoms or in regions with zero or negative bathymetric position index. Such areas were coincident with seafloor depressions and flat low-energy habitats. Repeated observations at some locations indicated that areas with steep slopes or large curvature tended to have variable patterns of drift compared to areas with little or no slope or curvature. We predict that deep subtidal environments receiving drift subsidy will be impacted by the declines in kelp biomass projected for this region (and others) due to changes in ocean climate.