The Incidence of Homelessness in Canada is a Population-Level Phenomenon: a Comparison of Toronto and Calgary Shelter Use over Time

We combined administrative data on shelter stays from Calgary (2008–2014) and Toronto (2011–2015) with census metropolitan area population estimates publicly available from Statistics Canada to compute incidence of shelter use per 1000 person-years in these two cities. We found that Calgary faces a higher overall risk of shelter use than Toronto (3.58 versus 1.18 per 1000 person-years), and that risk of shelter use for those aged 16–20 is nine times higher in Calgary than in Toronto. Calgary’s employment rate is correlated with the incidence of homelessness (r = 0.88) but not Toronto’s (r = − 0.28). Individual-level characteristics associated with shelter use could not explain the yearly fluctuations in risk of homelessness in Calgary, but macroeconomic indicators are correlated with them.